Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are neutral, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, showing improved business conditions compared to the previous month. The basis is also neutral, with the spot price at 79,970 and a basis of 120, indicating a premium over the futures price. The inventory situation is neutral, with copper inventories decreasing by 1,225 tons to 147,650 tons on September 19th, and the SHFE copper inventory increasing by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week. The market trend is bullish, with the closing price above the 20 - day moving average, which is upward - sloping. The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing. Overall, with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances still present, waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September, the current contradiction between long and short is not prominent, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises reduce production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rose to 49.4%, with business conditions improving compared to the previous month; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 79,970, basis is 120, with a premium over the futures price; neutral [2]. - Inventory: On September 19th, copper inventories decreased by 1,225 tons to 147,650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week; neutral [2]. - Market Trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward - sloping; bullish [2]. - Main Positions: The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing; bullish [2]. - Expectation: With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances still present, waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September, the current contradiction between long and short is not prominent, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Leverage Factors: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - Bonded Area Inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data for different years from 2018 - 2024, including production, import volume, export volume, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [19][21].
大越期货沪铜早报-20250922
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-22 02:21