《农产品》日报-20250922

Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may strengthen due to potential growth in production and exports. Dalian palm oil futures are expected to follow suit if they can effectively stand above the moving average. The overall view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones. - Soybean oil: The negative impact of the US EPA's proposal is almost digested. If the China - US leaders' call involves China's purchase of US soybeans, it will boost the CBOT soybean and soybean oil markets. The domestic market is in the final stage of Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, and the news of soybean oil exports also supports the market [1]. Sugar Industry - The Brazilian sugar production in late August exceeded market expectations, causing the raw sugar price to decline significantly. The domestic sugar market is under pressure due to increased imports in August and the weakening of raw sugar prices, and it is expected to maintain a weak downward trend [3]. Cotton Industry - The mid - term domestic cotton price may face pressure as the willingness to scramble for seed cotton is low, and there is significant hedging pressure. The downstream industry has low confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than in previous years [4]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market will maintain low - level fluctuations or may have a slight rebound due to the impact of the new - season listing rhythm and price support. In the medium term, the weak situation remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the grain - purchasing rhythm and weather conditions [6]. Egg Industry - The egg price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory and increased egg production after the weather cools. The approach of National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival may increase demand, but currently, the price is under pressure [10]. Meal Industry - The domestic concern about the fourth - quarter supply of meals is gradually alleviated, with a loose spot market. Although there are many short - term negative factors suppressing soybean meal, there is still a basis for rebound as the supply in January - February next year is not loose, and the uncertainty lies in the China - US negotiation results [13]. Pig Industry - The pig market has increased supply from the breeding end, and the demand recovery is slow. The short - term spot price lacks support, and the near - term contracts are expected to maintain a weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 spread arbitrage opportunities [15]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 19, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8620 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8328 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9300 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the futures price of P2601 was 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10180 yuan/ton, up 1.19%; the futures price of OI601 was 10068 yuan/ton, up 0.84% [1]. - Spreads: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 680 yuan/ton, up 6.85%; the 2601 contract spread was - 1062 yuan/ton, up 2.21%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1560 yuan/ton, up 2.63%; the 2601 contract spread was 1740 yuan/ton, up 2.35% [1]. Sugar Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of sugar 2601 was 5461 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5446 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.18 cents/pound, up 0.31%. The spot price in Nanning was 5830 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5845 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [3]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative sales were 1000.00 million tons, up 12.87% year - on - year. The Brazilian sugar production in late August was 387.2 million tons, up 18.21% year - on - year [3]. Cotton Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of cotton 2605 was 13705 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13720 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The ICE US cotton主力 was 66.30 cents/pound, down 0.93%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15198 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [4]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory decreased by 18.6% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory decreased by 3.5% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 40% month - on - month [4]. Corn Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of corn 2511 was 2168 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The price of corn starch 2511 was 2463 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [6]. - Industry Situation: In the Northeast, the old - season inventory is low, and the new - season listing is slow, which supports the price. In the North China, continuous rainfall affects the corn harvest, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants has decreased [6]. Egg Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of the egg 11 - contract was 3112 yuan/500KG, down 0.64%; the price of the egg 10 - contract was 3025 yuan/500KG, down 0.59% [10]. - Industry Situation: The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.50, up 2.88%, and the breeding profit was - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 20.84% [10]. Meal Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of M2601 was 3014 yuan/ton, up 0.70%. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2600 yuan/ton, up 1.17%; the price of RM2601 was 2522 yuan/ton, up 2.11% [13]. - Industry Situation: The USDA September supply - demand report shows an increase in production and a slight increase in the stock - to - sales ratio. The Brazilian premium is strong, which supports the domestic cost [13]. Pig Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of the pig 2511 contract was 12825 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; the price of the pig 2601 contract was 13350 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The spot price in Henan was 12950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [15]. - Industry Situation: The slaughter volume increased by 0.57% day - on - day, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 245.13% week - on - week [15].