《黑色》日报-20250922

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel demand is in the off - season and has not improved seasonally. August industry data shows a decline in domestic real estate and infrastructure investment, and a weakening in manufacturing investment growth. However, due to the expected interference in the coal supply and pre - National Day restocking, the downward space for steel prices is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The recommended operation is to try to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Also, short the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin declined slightly, but the molten iron output increased, and the steel mill's restocking demand rose. The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 iron ore contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Coal Industry - For coke, last week the futures rose in a volatile manner. There was a divergence between the futures and spot prices. The second round of price cuts for coke spot by steel mills was implemented, but the port trade quotes followed the futures up. For coking coal, the futures also showed a volatile upward trend, leading the spot. The spot auction price showed signs of a stable rebound. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China and North China increased slightly, while in South China decreased. Futures prices of all contracts rose. - Hot - rolled coil: Spot prices in East China increased slightly, while in North China and South China decreased. Futures prices of all contracts rose [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased. Profits of various types of steel showed different degrees of decline [1]. Production, Inventory, and Demand - The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.2%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.2%. Rebar output decreased by 2.6%, and hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.3%, the rebar inventory decreased by 0.5%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.3%. The building materials trading volume increased by 29.6%, the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 0.8%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types increased. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore types decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 29.6%, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5%. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 2.4%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 3.5%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 10.0% [4]. Coal Industry Coke - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The prices of coke futures contracts increased. The coking profit increased slightly. The total coke inventory increased by 1.0%, with the coking plant's inventory decreasing by 2.1% and the steel mill's and port's inventory increasing [6]. Coking Coal - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The prices of coking coal futures contracts increased. The sample coal mine profit increased by 4.2%. The coking coal inventory of the whole - sample coking plant increased by 6.4%, and the inventory available days increased by 6.5% [6].