Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that rubber prices will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract trading in the range of 15,000 - 16,500. The supply side is affected by the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas, and the expected increase in raw material output in the future suppresses the raw material prices. The cost support has weakened, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, so the natural rubber inventory is unlikely to see a significant reduction. On the demand side, although some enterprises are short of goods, the overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises may control production flexibly. As the holiday approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds increases, and the macro - sentiment of commodities weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan to 14,700 yuan, a decline of 0.68%. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 65 to - 835. - The price of Thai - standard mixed rubber decreased by 250 yuan to 14,750 yuan, a decline of 1.67%. The non - standard price difference decreased by 215 to - 785, a decline of 37.72%. - The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.60 Thai baht per kilogram to 51.05 Thai baht per kilogram, a decline of 1.16%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market increased by 0.10 to 56.30, an increase of 0.18% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to 15, a decline of 50.00%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 to 5, a decline of 66.67%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 to - 20, an increase of 55.56% [1]. Production and Consumption Data - In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons or 1.61% compared with the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons or 12.09%. India's production was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons or 2.17%. China's production was 101,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 73.66%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 10.2954 million tons, an increase of 859,000 tons or 9.10%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63.01 million pieces, a decrease of 3.64 million pieces or 5.46% [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 10,020 tons to 592,275 tons, a decline of 1.66%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,411 tons to 44,553 tons, a decline of 3.07% [1]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Soda Ash: The fundamental problem of over - supply still exists. Although the manufacturers' inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and the over - supply still exists compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - Glass: The spot market has good transactions, and the inventory has decreased this week. However, the inventory of some middle - stream enterprises in some regions remains high. The deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass is continuously low. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. The industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply problem. It is necessary to track the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - Glass: The price of glass 2505 increased by 15 yuan to 1343 yuan, an increase of 1.13%. The price of glass 2509 increased by 18 yuan to 1405 yuan, an increase of 1.30%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 193, a decline of 8.43%. - Soda Ash: The price of soda ash 2505 increased by 7 yuan to 1407 yuan, an increase of 0.50%. The price of soda ash 2509 increased by 12 yuan to 1454 yuan, an increase of 0.86%. The 05 basis decreased by 7 to - 107, a decline of 7.00% [3]. Supply - The soda ash mining rate decreased by 2.02 percentage points to 85.53%. The weekly production of soda ash decreased by 15,000 tons to 745,700 tons, a decline of 2.02%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 159,500 tons, a decline of 0.47%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 675,000 tons to 60.908 million tons, a decline of 1.10%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 1.7556 million tons, a decline of 2.33%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 614,900 tons, an increase of 10.69% [3]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of completion area was - 0.22%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of sales area was - 6.55%, a decrease of 6.50 percentage points [3]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. The current average daily shipment volume is still below 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan per cubic meter has a high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2511 increased by 3.5 yuan to 805 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.44%. The price of log 2601 increased by 2 yuan to 818.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.24%. The price of log 2603 increased by 1 yuan to 825 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.12%. The price of log 2605 remained unchanged at 828 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15. The 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20. The 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55. The 01 - contract basis decreased by 66.5 to - 68.5 [4]. Import Cost and Shipping - The import theoretical cost was 796.96 yuan, an increase of 0.37 yuan, an increase of 0%. - The number of ships departing from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3 to 44, a decline of 6.38% [4]. Inventory and Demand - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The average daily shipment volume of logs increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 3% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance will gradually become looser. The expectation of large - scale production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises during the flat - and - low - water period is at the end of October, so the expected surplus in October is more obvious and will narrow again in November. At the same time, the increase in production costs in the southwest during the flat - and - low - water period raises the average industry cost, giving positive sentiment to the market. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will continue to lack upward driving force in the short term and may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 45, a decline of 89.89%. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,600 yuan. The basis decreased by 97 to - 202, a decline of 380.95%. - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 295, a decline of 57.55% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 35 to - 50, a decline of 233.33%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 to - 390, a decline of 1.30%. The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 to 5. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 30 to 10, an increase of 150.00% [5]. Fundamental Data - Production: The national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, an increase of 47,400 tons or 14.01%. Xinjiang's production was 169,700 tons, an increase of 19,400 tons or 12.91%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons or 41.19%. Sichuan's production was 53,700 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons or 10.72% [5]. - Operating Rate: The national operating rate was 55.87%, an increase of 3.26 percentage points or 6.20%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.61%, an increase of 8.02 percentage points or 15.25%. Yunnan's operating rate was 47.39%, an increase of 14.50 percentage points or 44.09%. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.29%, an increase of 7.33 percentage points or 19.83% [5]. - Downstream Production: The production of organic silicon DMC was 223,100 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons or 11.66%. The production of polysilicon was 131,700 tons, an increase of 24,900 tons or 23.31%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or - 1.60%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons or 8.32% [5]. Inventory Change - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 0.13 tons to 12.04 tons, a decline of 1.07%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.16 tons to 3.10 tons, an increase of 5.45%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan increased by 0.01 tons to 2.29 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory increased by 0.40 tons to 54.30 tons, an increase of 0.74% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the industry self - discipline meeting was held again to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises have production - cut plans in the future. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and the low inventory of some enterprises (the inventory distribution among enterprises is uneven) provide support for the price increase of polysilicon enterprises. Currently, low - price resources in the polysilicon market are scarce and are being snapped up, while high - price resources still face some resistance from downstream. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 50 yuan to 52,650 yuan, an increase of 0.10%. The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan. The basis of N - type material increased by 555 yuan to - 50, an increase of 91.74% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 505 yuan to 52,700 yuan, a decline of 0.95%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 130 to 120, an increase of 1300.00%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract decreased by 50 to - 2590, a decline of 1.97% [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly Data: The production of silicon wafers was 13.92 GW, an increase of 0.04 GW or 0.29%. The production of polysilicon was 3.10 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 0.64%. - Monthly Data: The production of polysilicon was 131.7 kilotons, an increase of 24.9 kilotons or 23.31%. The import volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, an increase of 0.03 kilotons or 40.30%. The export volume of polysilicon was 0.22 kilotons, an increase of 0.01 kilotons or 5.96%. The net export volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 14.92% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of polysilicon decreased by 1.5 kilotons to 20.4 kilotons, a decline of 6.85%. The inventory of silicon wafers increased by 0.32 GW to 16.87 GW, an increase of 1.93%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 7900 hands, an increase of 0.25% [6].
《特殊商品》日报-20250922
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-22 02:27