大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with over - supply leading to a downward trend that is difficult to reverse. The main logic is capacity mismatch, resulting in strong supply and weak demand. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decline in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of power battery manufacturers to take delivery [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,527 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.13%, with a production loss of 3,096 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 78,845 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.94%, with a production loss of 8,402 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8] - Basis: On September 19, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 460 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount [8] - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 34,456 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 59,495 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.09%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 137,531 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70%, higher than the historical average [8] - Market Chart: The MA20 of the market chart was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [8] - Main Position: The net short position of the main players decreased, showing a bearish trend [8] - Expectation: In August 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's import will be 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.71%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 72,740 - 75,180 [8] 3.2 Market Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of 6% lithium spodumene was 859 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 0.12%. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2 - 2.5%) was 1,880 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.58% [14] - Lithium Salt: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.07%. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.07% [14] - Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Batteries: The prices of most positive electrode materials and lithium batteries showed small fluctuations, with some products remaining unchanged [14] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has different trends in different periods [23] - Import and Export: The import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the export volume has also changed to a certain extent. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months [26] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different changes [29] - Import and Export: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed, and the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also shows different results in different months [35] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends in different years [38] - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months [40] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica: The production cost and profit of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate have changed, and the processing cost is composed of multiple parts [43] - Import and Other Profits: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and exporting have all changed [43][45][48] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has different trends [50] - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [50] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price and Production: The price of lithium batteries has shown small fluctuations, and the monthly production, shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have different trends [54] - Inventory and Bidding: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the EPC bidding situation of energy storage systems have changed [56] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the cost and profit of different types of ternary precursors have different trends [59] - Capacity Utilization and Supply - Demand Balance: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has changed, and the supply - demand balance also shows different situations in different months [59][62] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary materials has changed, and the cost - profit trend of different types of ternary materials has different characteristics [64] - Production and Inventory: The production and weekly inventory of ternary materials have changed [64][66] 3.11 Demand - Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of phosphorus iron/phosphorus iron lithium has changed, and the cost - profit situation of phosphorus iron lithium has different trends [68] - Production and Inventory: The production and weekly inventory of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium have changed [68][71] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have different trends, and the sales penetration rate has also changed [76] - Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indexes of dealers have changed [80]