大越期货PVC期货早报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4920 - 4980. The current demand may remain weak, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - The fundamentals are neutral. The main positions are net short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish tendency. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, also bearish. The inventory situation is mixed, with a decrease in factory inventory but an increase in social inventory, generally bearish. The disk shows a neutral state with the MA20 moving down and the 01 - contract futures price closing above the MA20 [7][8][10]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points include the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [13][14]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production data for different types of PVC (such as calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based), as well as downstream开工 rates and profit margins [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and volume trends, and spread analysis of the main contracts of PVC futures, showing the historical data and trends of these indicators [17][20][23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals 3.4.1 Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials - For calcium carbide - based raw materials, the report shows the price, cost - profit, and production data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, as well as their historical trends [26][29][31]. 3.4.2 PVC Supply - The supply side shows the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance data of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, as well as the historical trends of these indicators [38][41]. 3.4.3 PVC Demand - The demand side includes data on the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工 rates of PVC, as well as real - estate - related data such as investment, construction area, and sales volume, and their historical trends [43][45][54]. 3.4.4 PVC Inventory - The inventory section shows the data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days, as well as their historical trends [60]. 3.4.5 Ethylene - Based PVC - For ethylene - based PVC, the report provides data on the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads, as well as their historical trends [62]. 3.4.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the monthly import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, and presents the monthly supply - demand trends [65].