大越期货菜粕早报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is influenced by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff reduction between China and Canada, and has returned to a short - term oscillating pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the spot price remained relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly. The rapeseed processing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly. The price of aquatic fish rebounded slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [18][20][23][25][27][35]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is yet to be determined. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production is offset by the increase in Russia's production. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish Factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market [11]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared with last week's 18,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared with 22,000 tons in the same period last year [9]. - Price: From September 11th to 19th, the rapeseed meal futures price fluctuated between 2460 - 2567, and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated between 2540 - 2620. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 414 - 459 [13][15]. - Aquatic Product Prices: The price of aquatic fish rebounded slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [9].