大越期货沪铜周报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - No specific content about PMI is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [10][13]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [14][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Positions - There is an outflow of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC [23]. 3.3.3 Futures - Spot Price Spread - No specific content about the futures - spot price spread is provided in the report. 3.3.4 Import Profits - No specific content about import profits is provided in the report. 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific content about warehouse receipts is provided in the report.