大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices showed weak performance, with downstream buyers making purchases based on rigid demand and trading volume being average. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and freight rates also showed a stable - to - rising trend due to the increase in coal prices. Ferronickel prices continued to rise slightly, with the cost line moving up further, but overall, ferronickel enterprises were still in the red. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline, and inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" period was satisfactory. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading of ternary batteries continued to decline, having limited impact on increasing nickel demand. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, while the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint: This week, nickel prices were weak, downstream demand was based on rigid needs, and trading was average. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices were firm, freight rates were stable and rising, ferronickel prices rose slightly but enterprises were still losing money, stainless steel inventories decreased, new energy vehicle data was good but ternary battery loading declined, and the long - term oversupply remained [8]. - Operation Strategy: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices remained unchanged this week compared to last week. Battery - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 0.72%, while electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices remained flat. Low - grade ferronickel prices remained unchanged, and high - grade ferronickel prices increased by 0.52%. Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory prices all decreased slightly. 304 stainless steel prices increased by 0.72% [13][14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices and freight rates remained unchanged from last week. As of September 18, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.0011 million wet tons, an increase of 1.01% from the previous period. In July 2025, nickel ore imports were 5.0058 million tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month and the same period last year. This week, the nickel ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with prices stable and freight rates firm due to rising coal prices. Indonesian supply remained abundant [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and downstream buyers made purchases as needed, with overall trading being average. Spot premiums and discounts were slightly adjusted. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply situation will not change. Domestic new energy may be a new demand driver, and prices may be under pressure in the long - term but will not deviate far from the cost line, with the center of gravity likely to shift downwards. LME and Shanghai nickel inventories both increased [22][25][38]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Ferronickel prices showed a stable - to - rising trend. In August 2025, China's ferronickel production decreased slightly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. In July 2025, ferronickel imports decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. In August, ferronickel inventories were 218,900 physical tons, equivalent to 21,700 nickel tons [42][45][51]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - 304 stainless steel prices increased this week. In August 2025, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.3156 million tons, with the output of the 300 - series increasing by 2.34% compared to the previous month. The latest data showed that stainless steel imports were 73,000 tons and exports were 416,300 tons. As of September 19, stainless steel social inventories decreased compared to the previous period [56][60][66]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with significant year - on - year growth. From January to August, production and sales reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, also showing substantial year - on - year growth. In August, the total output of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. However, the loading of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year [71][74]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line chart, prices fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. Open interest decreased as prices declined, indicating some reduction in long positions. The MACD red bar fluctuated slightly above the zero axis, showing a lack of clear direction. The KDJ was at the mid - level, also lacking direction. Prices mainly oscillated within a narrow range [77]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - The impact of different sectors on nickel prices varies: nickel ore has a neutral impact; ferronickel has a neutral impact; refined nickel has a slightly bearish impact; stainless steel has a slightly bullish impact; and the new energy sector has a neutral impact [80]. - Trading strategies suggest that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [82].