大越期货纯碱早报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The supply is at a high level, the end - demand is declining, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The supply of soda ash is high as there are few alkali plant overhauls, while the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable and that of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The terminal demand is average, and the factory inventory of soda ash is at a high level in the same period [2]. - The basis is - 93 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][35]. - The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - The short - term trend of soda ash is expected to be mainly volatile [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: The peak overhaul period within the year is approaching, and the production is expected to decline [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry production is at a high level in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is high, the terminal demand is declining, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1318 yuan/ton, with a increase of 0.92% compared with the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1225 yuan/ton, with a increase of 1.24%. The main basis is - 93 yuan, a decrease of 3.13% [6]. 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1225 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 96.75 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 108.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.53%, and the weekly production is 745,700 tons, including 417,700 tons of heavy soda ash, with the production at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with new production capacities of 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons, and a planned 7.5 million tons (1 million tons actually put into production) respectively [20]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 103.56% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 76.01% is stable [26]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [32]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [36].