大越期货沪铝周报-20250922

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Shanghai Aluminum Weekly Report (9.15~9.19)" [1] - Author: Zhu Senlin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated downward, with the main contract falling 1.52%. It closed at 20,795 yuan/ton on Friday. Factors such as long - term capacity control under carbon neutrality, weak domestic real - estate demand, cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and US steel and aluminum tariff increases have affected the market. Domestic demand has entered the peak season, waiting for consumption recovery. [3] - Last week, LME inventory was 513,900 tons, showing a slight increase from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 765 tons to 127,734 tons. [3] Group 3: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | | | | China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet for Aluminum (10,000 tons) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Time | Output | Net Imports | Apparent Consumption | Actual Consumption | Supply - Demand Balance | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | -47.6 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | -0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | -68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | -14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | -29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | -4.3 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [11] Group 4: Report Structure - The report includes sections on market review, fundamentals (inventory structure), and market structure [2] - The fundamentals section covers supply - demand balance, aluminum, bauxite, alumina, and aluminum rods [7] - The market structure section includes the basis and import profit [26]