大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected that the market will experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week due to the expected decrease in supply, continuous increase in demand, and sustained low costs [4][7][75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate rose this week, with the opening price on Monday at 71,260 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 73,960 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 3.79% [4]. - Supply Side: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,363 tons, higher than the historical average. Production from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycling all increased compared to the previous period and were above the historical average [4]. - Demand Side: In August 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 104,023 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. The predicted demand for next month is 109,470 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.24%. The export volume in August was 307 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.12%, and the predicted export volume for next month is 410 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.55% [5]. - Cost Side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,527 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%, resulting in a loss of 3,096 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 78,845 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.94%, resulting in a loss of 8,402 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - Inventory Side: The smelter inventory is 34,456 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.85%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 59,495 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.09%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 43,580 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory is 137,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%, higher than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Price and Basis: The report presents the trends of the main lithium carbonate futures contract, including the basis, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price [12]. - Lithium Ore Supply: It shows the price trends of lithium ore, production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China, import volume of lithium concentrate, self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, and inventory of lithium ore at ports [15]. - Lithium Carbonate Supply: It includes the weekly operating rate, production, production capacity, import volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from different sources [21][27]. - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate, production, production capacity, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide [30][32]. - Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds: It analyzes the cost and profit of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export [35][37][40]. - Inventory: It shows the warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [42]. - Lithium Battery Demand: It includes the price, production, shipment, export, and cost of lithium batteries [46]. - Ternary Precursor Demand: It shows the price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [51][54]. - Ternary Material Demand: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials [56][58]. - Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand: It shows the price, cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, export, and inventory of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium [60][63]. - New Energy Vehicle Demand: It includes the production, sales, export, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles [68][69]. 3.3 Technical Analysis The main 11 - contract showed an upward trend this week. The report presents the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price of the LC main contract, along with moving averages such as MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, and MA120 [75].