工业硅期货周报-20250922

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon 11 - contract showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 6.65%. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will experience neutral and volatile adjustments [4][5]. - The polysilicon 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 1.73%. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production schedule will continue to decrease, demand will continue to recover, cost support will remain stable, and the market will experience bearish and volatile adjustments [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The opening price on Monday was 8725 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 9305 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.65% [4]. - Supply: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,310 tons, a 3.71% increase. The expected monthly start - up rate is 59.19%, a 3.32 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - Demand: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. In terms of different downstream sectors, the polysilicon inventory is lower than the historical average, while the organic silicon and aluminum alloy inventories are higher than the historical average [5]. - Cost: The production loss of oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3050 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase; the sample enterprise inventory is 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; and the main port inventory is 120,000 tons, a 0.84% increase [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The opening price on Monday was 53,630 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 52,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.73% [7]. - Supply: The production last week was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease. The predicted production schedule for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from last month [7]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production last week was 13.92 GW, a 0.28% increase; the battery cell production is increasing, and the component production is also increasing. The overall demand is showing a continuous recovery [7][8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,600 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease, at a historical low [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread: The report presents the trends of the SI main contract basis and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [14][15]. - Inventory: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses, including delivery warehouses and ports [18]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The report presents the trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise start - up rates in different regions [20][21][22]. - Cost: It shows the cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang [26]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the production, consumption, import, export, and balance situations [28][31]. - Downstream Industries - Organic Silicon: It includes the production, price, cost, profit, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products [34][36]. - Aluminum Alloy: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy [44][47][48]. - Polysilicon: It presents the cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories [54][57][60]. 3. Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 11 - contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to experience neutral and volatile adjustments next week [77]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience bearish and volatile adjustments next week [79].