菜粕周报：政策面扰动，菜粕维持震荡-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff reduction between China and Canada, and has returned to a short - term oscillatory pattern. The market will focus on subsequent developments [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal's fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bullish; inventory is bullish; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish; and the short - term outlook is to return to an oscillatory pattern [8]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in its peak season, and the supply of the domestic rapeseed spot market is expected to improve. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has a preliminary ruling, but the final result is uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing, and geopolitical conflicts support commodities [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided. The import volume of rapeseed in September is stable, the cost is affected by tariffs, the oil mill's rapeseed inventory is falling, and the rapeseed meal inventory is slightly decreasing. Aquatic product prices are showing different trends [15][17][30]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal are increasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is in a short - term oscillatory pattern. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the short - term trend is oscillatory, and the future trend depends on policies and the influence of soybean meal [41]. 7. Next Week's Focus - Key points include the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports, domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44].