大越期货沥青期货早报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in August 2025 was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The current production reduction by refineries eases supply pressure, but it may increase next week. The demand side indicates that overall demand is lower than the historical average. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3399 - 3443 [7][8][9]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. There are both positive factors, such as relatively high - level crude oil costs providing some support, and negative factors, like insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand along with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply Side: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The current week's sample capacity utilization rate was 36.3734%, a 0.06 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The sample enterprise output was 607,000 tons, a 0.16% month - on - month decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 699,000 tons, a 2.95% month - on - month increase. Refineries have reduced production recently, easing supply pressure, but it may increase next week [7]. - Demand Side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a 1.71 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a 1.69 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a 0.50 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a 12.97% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - Basis: On September 19, the Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a 2.88% month - on - month decrease; the in - factory inventory was 653,000 tons, a 4.53% month - on - month decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 240,000 tons, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease. All types of inventory are in a state of continuous destocking [8]. - Market Trend: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3399 - 3443 [9]. - Positive Factors: Relatively high - level crude oil costs provide some support [11]. - Negative Factors: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown [21][22]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil prices from 2020 - 2025 are presented [24][25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown [27][28][29]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The historical trend of the asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio from 2020 - 2025 is presented [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 is shown [36][37]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 is presented [39][40][41]. - Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volumes from 2020 - 2025 are shown [43][44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 is presented [45][46]. - Production Volume: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes from 2019 - 2025 are shown [48][49]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 are presented [52][54]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 is shown [55][56]. - Operating Rate: The historical trend of weekly asphalt operating rates from 2021 - 2025 is presented [58][59]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: The historical trend of estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025 is shown [60][61]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 are shown [63][64][66]. - Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 are presented [67][68]. - In - Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio: The historical trend of the in - factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 is shown [70][71]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025 are shown [73][74]. - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: The historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 is presented [77][78]. - Demand Side - Petroleum Coke Production: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 is shown [79][80]. - Apparent Consumption: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 is presented [82][83]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Related Indicators: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 are shown [85][86][87]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 are presented [89][90][92]. - Asphalt Operating Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate: The historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 is shown [94][95]. - Asphalt Operating Rate by Use: The historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 - 2025 are presented [97][100][103]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [105][106]