甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250922

Group 1: Methanol - The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial later [2]. - Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's still necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase from Iran and unplanned maintenance [2]. - From September 15th to 19th, the price of动力煤期货remained unchanged at 801, the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 7 to 2260, and the import profit increased by 16 to 6 [2]. Group 2: Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal chemical enterprises are destocking, social inventory remains flat, downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral [6]. - The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now [6]. - Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large [6]. - From September 15th to 19th, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 850, the North China LL price decreased by 20 to 7100, and the主力期货price decreased by 19 to 7169 [6]. Group 3: Polypropylene - Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream enterprises are destocking. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year [7]. - The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene price is fluctuating, and powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral [7]. - Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [7]. - From September 15th to 19th, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6580, the华东PP price decreased by 35 to 6795, and the仓单decreased by 177 to 13499 [7]. Group 4: PVC - The basis maintains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating [7]. - During summer, Northwest devices have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the realization of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. The recent short - term export orders have slightly declined [7]. - Coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure with PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. - From September 15th to 19th, the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 8 to 817, and the电石法 - 华东price increased by 30 to 4830 [7].