Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the 11 - contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 3410 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3421 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.32%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, the supply will decrease, and the cost support will weaken. The market may undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. Section Summaries 1. Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 11 - contract rose this week, with an opening price of 3410 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 3421 yuan/ton on Friday, a 0.32% increase [5]. - Supply: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 239.8 million tons, a 3.5% month - on - month increase and a 12.7% year - on - year increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a 0.06 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The national sample enterprise shipment was 31.36 million tons, a 31.10% month - on - month increase. The sample enterprise production was 60.7 million tons, a 0.16% month - on - month decrease. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 69.9 million tons, a 2.95% month - on - month increase. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [5]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a 1.71 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a 1.69 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a 0.50 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a 12.97% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the short - term support will weaken [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 114.6 million tons, a 2.88% month - on - month decrease. The in - plant inventory was 65.3 million tons, a 4.53% month - on - month decrease. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 million tons, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease. All types of inventories continued to decline [6]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Analysis: The report presents the Shandong and East China basis trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [10][11]. - Spread Analysis - 主力合约价差: The 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spread trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown [13][14]. - 沥青原油价格走势: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [17]. - 原油裂解价差: The cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 are shown [20][21]. - 沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [24]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - 各地区市场价走势: The price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 are shown [27][28]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - 沥青利润: The profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [30]. - 焦化沥青利润价差走势: The profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown [33][34]. - Supply - side Analysis - 出货量: The weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented [36][37]. - 稀释沥青港口库存: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown [38][39]. - 产量: The weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [42]. - 马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势: The price trend of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown [46]. - 开工率: The weekly开工率 of asphalt from 2023 to 2025 is presented [50][51]. - 检修损失量预估: The estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is shown [54]. - Inventory Analysis - 交易所仓单: The exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [57][59]. - 社会库存和厂内库存: The social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) trends of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are shown [62]. - 厂内库存存货比: The in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is shown [65]. - 进出口情况: The export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [67][68][71]. - Demand - side Analysis - 石油焦产量: The petroleum coke production trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented [74]. - 表观消费量: The apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [77]. - 下游需求 - 公路建设交通固定资产走势, 新增地方专项债走势, 基础建设投资完成额同比: The trends of highway construction traffic fixed assets, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented [80][81]. - 下游机械需求走势: The sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, and the sales volume trends of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented [84][86]. - 沥青开工率 - 重交沥青开工率: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented [89]. - 按用途分沥青开工率: The construction asphalt and modified asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented [92]. - 下游开工情况: The开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [95][97]. - 供需平衡表: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to September 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [100]. 5. Technical Analysis - The price and trading volume trends of the BU main contract from August 25 to September 19, 2025, are presented, along with the moving average trends of different periods (5 - period, 10 - period, 20 - period, 60 - period, 120 - period) of the closing price [103].
大越期货沥青期货周报-20250922
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-22 05:29