钢材产业期现日报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are affected by weak demand and expected coal supply contraction, with limited downward space and expected to trade in a range. Suggest light - position long attempts and short the January hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is in a balanced and tight pattern. Unilateral trading should be viewed as bullish with a trading range of 780 - 850. Suggest long the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [4]. Coal Industry - For coke, suggest long the coke 2601 contract on dips within the range of 1650 - 1800 and an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, suggest long the coking coal 2601 contract on dips within the range of 1150 - 1330 and an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3250, 3210, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10, 0, and - 20 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3410, 3320, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10, - 10, and - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 3040 yuan/ton with no change, and slab price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. Profits of hot - rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Production - Daily average hot - metal output increased by 0.4 to 241.0 tons, a 0.2% increase. Five major steel products' output decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 tons, a 0.2% decrease. Rebar output decreased by 5.5 to 206.5 tons, a 2.6% decrease, and hot - rolled coil output increased by 1.4 to 326.5 tons, a 0.4% increase [1]. Inventory - Five major steel products' inventory increased by 5.1 to 1519.7 tons, a 0.3% increase. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.6 to 650.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.7 to 378.0 tons, a 1.3% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 2.6 to 11.4 tons, a 29.6% increase. Five major steel products' apparent demand increased by 7.0 to 850.3 tons, an 0.8% increase. Rebar apparent demand increased by 12.0 to 210.0 tons, a 6.0% increase, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 4.3 to 321.8 tons, a 1.3% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of different iron ore powders in Rizhao Port increased by 7 - 9 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis of different iron ore powders decreased significantly, with a decline of 44.5% - 50.2% [4]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments increased by 816.9 to 3573.1 tons, a 29.6% increase, and 45 - port arrivals decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 tons, a 3.5% decrease [4]. Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output increased by 0.4 to 241.0 tons, a 0.2% increase. 45 - port daily average ore - clearing volume increased by 7.9 to 339.2 tons, a 2.4% increase [4]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory decreased by 3.3 to 13801.08 tons, a 0.0% decrease. 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 316.4 to 9309.4 tons, a 3.5% increase [4]. Coal Coke - Futures prices of coke contracts increased, with the 01 - contract rising by 1.7% and the 05 - contract rising by 1.9%. Steel - union coking profit increased by 11 yuan/ton. Coke total inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 tons, a 1.0% increase [6]. Coking Coal - Futures prices of coking coal contracts increased, with the 01 - contract rising by 2.4% and the 05 - contract rising by 3.0%. Sample coal - mine profit increased by 17 yuan/ton, a 4.2% increase. Total coking coal inventory increased slightly [6].