Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Industrial Silicon: The supply side's production has increased, and the demand has also risen. However, considering factors such as inventory and cost, the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9170 - 9440 [6]. - Polysilicon: The supply side's production is decreasing, while the demand side shows signs of recovery. Overall, the demand is on the rise, and the cost support is stabilizing. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51765 - 53635 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; major port inventory was 120,000 tons, a 0.84% increase [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 3,050 yuan/ton. During the wet season, the cost support has weakened [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9170 - 9440 [6]. - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 13.92GW, a 0.28% increase from the previous week. The inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule continues to decrease, while the demand side shows continuous increases in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production. Overall, the demand is recovering, and the cost support is stabilizing. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 51765 - 53635 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon: The report provides data on prices, inventories, production, and costs of industrial silicon, including futures closing prices, spot prices, inventory changes in different regions, production volume changes, and cost - profit situations in different regions [14]. - Polysilicon: The report presents data on prices, inventories, production, and costs of polysilicon, such as futures closing prices, spot prices, inventory changes, production volume changes, and cost - profit situations [16].
工业硅期货早报-20250922
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-22 05:30