PVC期货周报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend with a weekly increase of 1.37%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly. The demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The disk is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment next week [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 01 contract opened at 4883 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 4950 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.37% [5]. - Supply Side: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [5]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resins showed different trends, and the shipping cost is bearish. The current demand may remain sluggish [5]. - Cost and Profit: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 30.80%. The profit of the ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton spread was 2449.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.40%. Production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Base - price Trend: The document presents the base - price trend chart of PVC futures, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. - Price and Volume: The document shows the price and volume trends of the main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the net position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [13]. - Spread Analysis: The document shows the spread trends of the main contracts in 2024 and 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [19][22][24][26]. - PVC Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rates of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method, as well as the production, maintenance volume, and profit trends of PVC [30][33]. - Demand Trend: It includes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the profit, production, and cost of paste resin. It also involves real - estate and macro - economic indicators such as real - estate investment, construction area, and social financing scale [36][37][39][46][50]. - Inventory: It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory [52]. - Ethylene Method - Related: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads [54]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from 2024 to 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [57]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment next week [62].