广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and stabilized, with a sharp rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises is narrowing, and the support for spot prices is weak. The inventory in North China is rising, while that in East China is falling. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term [2]. - PVC: Last week, the PVC futures rebounded due to macro - warming, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream demand is limited, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. The cost provides bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September - October [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are weakly declining. The supply may increase, and the demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak. The export new orders are limited. If there is no export surge or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the price may fall below 1,550 yuan/ton [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain at a high level, and the demand support is weak. The price driving force is weak. The strategy for BZ2603 is to follow the styrene fluctuations [13]. - Styrene: The weekly supply - demand of styrene is also weak. The strategy is to be bearish on the absolute price rebound of EB11, and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level, but the driving force is limited [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - PX: The supply of PX may increase due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance. The demand is affected by PTA maintenance. The price is under pressure, and the basis boost is limited [17]. - PTA: The processing fee of PTA is low, and new device production is postponed. The demand is in the peak season, but the basis and processing fee repair drive is insufficient. The absolute price follows the cost [17]. - MEG: The supply - demand of MEG is gradually weakening. In the short - term, the import is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, it will enter the inventory accumulation period in the fourth quarter [17]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound drive is limited [17]. - Bottle chips: The bottle chip device restart and shutdown coexist. The downstream replenishment supports the price and processing fee, but the increase is limited [17]. Polyolefin Industry PP production has decreased due to losses in PDH and external propylene procurement routes, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The upper - middle stream inventory has decreased. North American import offers are increasing. The inventory accumulation pressure of 01 contract is large, limiting the upside [22]. Methanol Industry The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian loading. The coastal inventory has reached a historical high, the market sentiment is poor, and the price is weak. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high inventory and overseas gas - limit expectations. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point [30][32]. Crude Oil Industry Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market focuses on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is weak. The short - term oil prices are under pressure. Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, with SC resistance at 505 - 510, Brent at 68 - 69, and WTI at 64 - 65. Arbitrage is recommended to be long - spread, and options are recommended to buy put options [40]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - Spot and Futures Prices: On September 19, compared with the previous day, the prices of some products such as SH2509, SH2601, V2509, and V2601 increased, while the basis and spreads of some products changed [2]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports increased, and the export profit increased significantly. The export profit of PVC decreased [2]. - Supply: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased [2]. - Demand: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of some products such as liquid caustic soda in Shandong and PVC total social inventory changed [2]. Urea Industry - Supply: The daily and weekly production of urea, and the operating rate of production plants are provided. The supply may increase [7]. - Demand: The demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak, and the export new orders are limited [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of urea in factories and ports is provided [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Upstream Prices and Spreads: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, etc. decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene also decreased. The spreads and import profits changed [13]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [13]. - Industry Operating Rates: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene chain changed [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - Upstream Prices and Spreads: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, etc. decreased. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also decreased. The spreads and basis changed [15][17]. - Industry Operating Rates and Inventory: No relevant content provided. Polyolefin Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - Inventory: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP changed [22]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and downstream industries changed [22]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: The prices of MA2601 and MA2509 changed. The basis and regional spreads changed [30]. - Inventory: The enterprise and social inventories of methanol changed [30]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed [30]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil and Product Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also changed [38]. - Market Analysis: The oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance and weakening geopolitical support [40].