大越期货原油早报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investor concerns about demand outlook are dragging down oil prices. As the summer consumption peak season ends, refineries' demand for crude oil will continue to decline, and the refinery maintenance season will further reduce demand [3]. - The EU is considering trade measures against its remaining Russian oil imports, and the next round of EU sanctions on Russia will target the oil - industry institutions in so - called "third countries" [3]. - Short - term geopolitical concerns support oil prices, but the supply - side pressure is gradually emerging, and oil prices are under downward pressure in the medium and long term. The short - term trading range for oil prices is between 480 - 490, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. - Citi analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices will gradually fall to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026, with expected daily increases in global crude oil inventories of 1.1 million barrels in 2025 and 2.1 million barrels in 2026 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For crude oil 2511, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; inventory data is bullish; the disk is neutral; the main positions are bullish. The short - term trading range is 480 - 490, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Citi analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will decline, with expected increases in global crude oil inventories in 2025 and 2026. "Pessimistic scenarios" may be triggered by weak macro - economy and trade or excessive supply growth, while "optimistic scenarios" may be driven by geopolitical events [5]. - A US House of Representatives delegation visited China, and China and the US expressed the need to strengthen contact and promote the healthy development of bilateral relations [5]. - The US government faces an increased threat of shutdown as the Senate rejected a temporary appropriation bill, and the Republicans may vote again on September 29 [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors are not mentioned. Bearish factors include weak institutional monthly report expectations for the future market and continued tension in US trade relations with other economies. The market is driven by a short - term reduction in geopolitical conflicts and an increased risk of trade tariff issues, with supply expected to increase after the peak season in the medium and long term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures prices of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Oman) have declined, with decreases of - 1.32%, - 1.36%, - 1.03%, and - 1.63% respectively [7]. - Spot prices of various crude oils (UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Shengli, Dubai) have also declined, with decreases ranging from - 0.23% to - 1.07% [9]. - API crude oil inventories decreased by 3.42 million barrels in the week ending September 12, more than the expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels [3][10]. - EIA inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels in the week ending September 12, far more than the expected decrease of 0.857 million barrels [3][14]. 3.5 Position Data - As of September 16, WTI crude oil's main position was long, with an increase in long positions; Brent crude oil's main position was also long, with an increase in long positions [3]. - The net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds also changed. For example, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 16,865 on September 16 compared to the previous period, and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 22,593 on September 16 [17][20].