沥青期货早报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and the refineries reduced production. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand: The current overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 3.00% month - on - month, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 12.97% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On September 19th, the Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory are all in a state of continuous destocking [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3,399 - 3,443 [9]. - Influential factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, alleviating supply pressure. However, supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [9]. - Cost: Crude oil has weakened, and cost support has weakened in the short term [9]. - Inventory: Inventory remains flat [9]. - Market trend: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures prices: Most contract prices showed a downward trend, such as the 01 - contract price decreased by 0.50% [16]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% month - on - month [16]. - Production and sales: The sample enterprise output decreased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise shipment volume increased by 31.10% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton on September 19th, and the 11 - contract basis was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Spread: Analyzed the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [21][24][27][31]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - Analyzed the price trends of asphalt in different regions, including Shandong, East China, and South China [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: Analyzed the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt [36][39]. - Supply - side analysis: Analyzed multiple aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price, Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume [43][45][48]. - Inventory analysis: Analyzed exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [63][67][70]. - Import and export analysis: Analyzed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt [73][76][78]. - Demand - side analysis: Analyzed aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, machinery demand, etc.), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [79][82][85]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].