降息落地但提振有限,油价中长期依然承压
Chang An Qi Huo·2025-09-22 06:58
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices initially rose but later declined, erasing all gains. The pessimistic long - term consumption outlook and the increasing supply have pressured oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will fluctuate, while in the long - term, they will face downward pressure. It is recommended to cautiously short at high prices in the short term [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices showed a pattern of high at the beginning and low at the end. This week, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure. It is advisable to focus on the price range of 465 - 510 yuan/barrel and cautiously short at high prices within this range. Also, keep an eye on the production of OPEC+ countries and the United States [13]. 3.2 Market Review - In the first half of last week, oil prices rose due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the Middle East geopolitical situation. However, after the interest - rate cut, concerns about future consumption and the increasing production of OPEC+ countries and the United States led to a decline in oil prices in the second half [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, with the rate falling to the range of 4.00% - 4.25%. Some officials advocated a 50 - basis - point cut, and there are expectations of two more cuts this year. But Powell emphasized that this was a risk - management cut, and the impact on commodity prices may be limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [24][27]. 3.3.2 Supply - OPEC+ continued to increase production. For example, Saudi Arabia's production increased from 9450 thousand barrels per day in July to 9709 thousand barrels per day in August, and Russia's production also increased. Iraq's production was restored, and the US production remained stable and recovered [35][37][40]. 3.3.3 Demand - US calls and EU bans on Russian oil and gas reduced the consumption of Russian oil, leading to a wider supply in other regions. The manufacturing PMIs of the US and China did not improve, and the production of refined oil slowed down, all of which indicated weak demand [46][50][54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected in the week ending September 12, but the impact on oil prices was limited. Refined oil inventories increased, especially the significant accumulation of refined oil, indicating poor consumption performance [56][60]. 3.4 View Summary - Overall, the increase in supply and the weakening of consumption will drag down oil prices. Although the Fed cut interest rates, the global financial situation is weak. The geopolitical impact on oil - producing countries will gradually decrease. Therefore, oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and face long - term pressure [66].