工业硅市场受政策预期影响，行情或宽幅波动

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In the short term, industrial silicon lacks upward driving force, and silicon prices may shift to a volatile pattern. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of polysilicon enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot and Futures Price Trends - As of September 19, 2025, the price of East China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 9,350 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of East China Si4210 was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Supply Situation Analysis - In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 386,000 tons, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 19% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production was 2.597 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. In September, production is expected to increase by about 5% month - on - month [3][21]. - Xinjiang's weekly production was 33,610 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 69%, showing an increase. Northwest's weekly production was 10,950 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 77%, remaining stable. Yunnan's weekly production was 7,565 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 65%, remaining flat. Sichuan's weekly production was 6,035 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 52%, showing a decrease [25]. - There are many planned industrial silicon production capacity projects in 2025, with a potential production capacity of over 1 million tons. However, the industry needs to consider capacity clearance due to over - supply and inventory pressure [31]. 3.3 Demand Situation Analysis - Polysilicon: The price index this week was 52.35 yuan/kg, with a slight upward shift in the price center. Some enterprises have plans to reduce production. In August, domestic polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, and in September, production is expected to decline month - on - month [34]. - Organic silicon: The operating rate was stable, and the demand for industrial silicon remained stable. In August, production was 223,100 tons, a 11.67% month - on - month increase [48]. - Aluminum - silicon alloy: The operating rate showed a slight increasing trend, and the traditional "Golden September" effect was gradually emerging [3]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis - Raw material prices: Information on the prices of silica, petroleum coke, electrodes, and silicon coal is provided, but no specific price trends are detailed [89][91][95][96]. - Electricity prices in major production areas: In August, the electricity price during the flood season decreased, and the overall electricity price center shifted downward, but it is still at a medium - high level in the past 10 years [99]. - Profit: With the recent price rebound of industrial silicon, profits have been quickly restored [108]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - As of September 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 543,000 tons, a 4,000 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 120,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 423,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [115].