Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable supply and improving demand, with the total industrial inventory continuously decreasing and positive consumption expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 73,420 yuan/ton, down 540 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 152,646 lots, up 1,949 lots; the position of the main contract is 271,624 lots, down 9,640 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 39,484 lots/ton, up 130 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,600 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 430 yuan/ton, up 890 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 876 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 7,215 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 45,880 tons, up 1,280 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,846.92 tons, up 8,001.60 tons; the monthly export volume is 368.91 tons, up 2.56 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 46%, down 2%; the monthly output of power batteries is 139,600 MWh, up 5,800 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 57,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 230,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 145,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 119,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 127,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 3%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 57%, up 6%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,391,000 vehicles, up 148,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,395,000 vehicles, up 133,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 45.53%, up 0.54%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 9,620,000 vehicles, up 2,583,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 224,000 vehicles, down 1,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 1,532,000 vehicles, up 714,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 26.35%, down 0.16%; the 40 - day average volatility of the target is 42.63%, down 6.39% [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position is 204,306 lots, down 1,453 lots; the total put position is 102,142 lots, up 1,386 lots; the total position put - call ratio is 49.99%, up 1.0266%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.40%, up 0.0140% [2]. Industry News - In August, China's spodumene import volume was about 619,000 tons, a 17.5% month - on - month decrease, equivalent to 56,000 tons of LCE. The combined import volume from Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe accounted for 70.2%. The import volume from Australia decreased by 50.5% month - on - month, from Nigeria decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and from Zimbabwe increased by 84% month - on - month. The import volume from Mali and Brazil increased significantly [2]. - In August, China imported 22,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 58% month - on - month increase and a 25% year - on - year increase. 15,600 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 71% of the total import volume, and 4,000 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 19% of the total import volume. From January to August, China's cumulative import volume of lithium carbonate was 153,000 tons, a 3.5% cumulative year - on - year increase [2]. - The 2025 Suining International Lithium - Ion Battery Industry Conference was held. The official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that in the next step, the safety bottom line will be strengthened to promote the healthy development of the lithium - battery industry [2]. - The International Renewable Energy Agency released a report, affirming China's leading role in the global energy - storage industry. China has become the world's largest new - type energy - storage application market, accounting for more than 40% of the global installed capacity. Lithium - ion batteries and pumped storage are the most economical energy - storage technologies. The report suggests incorporating energy storage into the top - level planning and design of the power grid and increasing investment in global energy storage and the power grid [2]. View Summary - The main lithium - carbonate contract opened higher and then declined, with a 0.05% change at the close. The position decreased month - on - month, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - Fundamentally, overseas mines and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, domestic producers' purchasing sentiment has recovered, and the lithium price rebound has kept the ore price firm. In terms of supply, the inventory of lithium - salt factories and traders has been continuously reduced, and the recovery of lithium - price profits has made smelters more willing to produce, with a slight increase in supply. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises mainly adopt the strategy of buying on dips, which has significantly increased downstream inventory. The pre - holiday stocking before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day has made the spot - market transactions relatively active. Overall, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable supply and improving demand, with continuous reduction of total industrial inventory and positive consumption expectations [2]. - In the option market, the put - call ratio of positions is 49.99%, a 1.0266% month - on - month increase. The option market is dominated by subscription positions, with a bullish sentiment and a slight increase in implied volatility [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are converging [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks [2].
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250922
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-22 08:52