沪铜产业日报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The copper market fundamentals are in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly boosting demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 80,160 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,984.50 dollars/ton, down 4.50 dollars. The main contract inter - month spread is 10 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 176,962 lots, up 60,410 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 17,286 lots, down 3,082 lots; the LME copper inventory is 147,650 tons, down 1,225 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 105,814 tons, up 11,760 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 14,400 tons, up 950 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrants are 29,893 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,225 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,230 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 57.50 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3M spread is - 64.90 dollars/ton, up 6.19 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The copper smelter TC is - 40.80 dollars/thousand tons, up 0.50 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 70,520 yuan/metal ton, up 200 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,220 yuan/metal ton, up 200 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are both 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 530 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment is 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.55%, down 1.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.07%, down 0.02 percentage points. The current month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.17%, up 0.0027 percentage points; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.33, down 0.0708 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank believes it has reached the inflation target but faces uncertainties. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is expected to shift the policy focus and may drive global capital re - balance. Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with a US congressional delegation, emphasizing Sino - US cooperation. The real estate industry is entering a transformation from quantity to quality [2]