宏观经济周报-20250922

Group 1: China Macro - The ICHI Composite Economic Index remains in the contraction zone, but shows slight improvement compared to last week, indicating marginal economic recovery[1] - The consumption index is still in contraction, suggesting that consumer spending momentum needs to be restored[1] - The production index has fallen back into contraction, reflecting volatility in supply-side recovery, although investment remains a core support for stable growth[1] - The investment index remains in the expansion zone, indicating that investment continues to support economic stability[1] - The export index has stabilized at the edge of expansion, showing resilience in Chinese exports despite weak global demand[1] Group 2: Global Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year[6] - The Canadian central bank also cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, with a cautious stance on future policy directions[6] - The UK central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 4%, emphasizing a cautious approach due to rising inflation risks[7] - In the U.S., initial jobless claims fell to 231,000, below market expectations, but the number of continuing claims remains above 1.9 million, indicating challenges in the labor market[8]