氯碱周报：SH：山东区域库存继续累库，不排除降价风险，V：供需矛盾较难解决，价格上行存压制-20250922

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - This week, the caustic soda futures market stopped falling and stabilized, with a significant rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises have been continuously narrowing due to the ongoing decline in alumina prices both at home and abroad. The spot price support is weak. In the North China region, inventory has increased due to the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and the cautious purchasing attitude of downstream buyers. In the East China region, the supply is tight as the maintenance and production - reduction devices of enterprises have not yet resumed, and the inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand from non - aluminum sectors. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut as the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda needs time to be released, and the current supply is at a high level while the main downstream is facing difficulties in unloading [2]. 2.2 PVC - This week, the PVC futures market rebounded due to the improvement in the macro - environment. However, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. Next week, many enterprises will end their maintenance, and the production is expected to increase. On the demand side, the improvement in the operating rate of downstream products is limited, and some have completed their inventory replenishment, so they are resistant to high prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average. The cost of raw material calcium carbide is on an upward trend, while the ethylene price is stable, providing bottom - line support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream demand [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Market Trends - The caustic soda futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost. For example, the price accelerated its decline when the macro was weak, the operating rate was high, and there were concerns about future supply. It also had rebounds under the influence of positive policies and increased demand [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 85.44%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points from last week's 86.73%. The operating rate in Shandong was 85.11%, a decrease of 2.24%. The inventory in the East China region increased by 0.70% from September 10th to September 17th, and the inventory in Shandong increased by 8.28% and 7.46% respectively for different sample enterprises. The overall operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is still relatively high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 3.1.3 Demand - The alumina industry, the main downstream of caustic soda, has a large number of new production capacity plans from the end of 2024 to 2025. It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a concentrated demand of 150,000 tons from April to June [32]. 3.1.4 Other Related Industries - The price of bauxite is stable, the port inventory fluctuates, and the enterprise raw material inventory has increased significantly. The production of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the in - plant inventory is decreasing. The non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, textiles, and papermaking have different trends. The printing and dyeing operating rate is seasonally rising, and the textile industry is gradually entering the peak season [39][45][50]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Market Trends - The PVC futures price has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - environment, and cost. It has experienced continuous declines and rebounds. For instance, it fell when there was no positive supply - demand drive and the commodity atmosphere was poor, and rebounded when the macro - sentiment improved and there were some supply - demand contradictions [62]. 3.2.2 Supply - This week, the operating rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased, the weekly maintenance loss increased, and the number of temporarily shut - down devices increased. The overall operating rate of PVC powder was 75.43%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points compared with the previous week. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 76.91%, a decrease of 3.38 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 72%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points [84]. 3.2.3 Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. The real - estate industry, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices," still has a negative impact on demand. According to the data from Xuande samples, the downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels. It is expected that there will be no positive driving force for the PVC downstream [92]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The PVC inventory continues to rise, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period. The social inventory in the East China and South China regions, as well as the total social inventory and factory inventory, have all shown an upward trend [100]. 3.2.5 Foreign Market - In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with an average import price of $712 per ton. The cumulative import from January to July was 148,800 tons. The single - month import increased by 2.10% month - on - month, 46.98% year - on - year, and the cumulative import increased by 6.03% year - on - year. The export volume in July was 330,600 tons, with an average export price of $606 per ton. The cumulative export from January to July was 2.291 million tons. The single - month export increased by 26.17% month - on - month, 112.82% year - on - year, and the cumulative export increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The domestic trade price has adjusted, and the export windows to Southeast Asia and India have opened, with relatively good weekly export transactions [118]. 3.3 Futures and Options Strategy Recommendations 3.3.1 Caustic Soda - Futures strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for the 01 contract [4]. - Options strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3.3.2 PVC - Futures strategy: Expect the 01 contract to fluctuate in the range of 4,800 - 5,000 [5]. - Options strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5].