油脂油料产业日报-20250922

Report Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures oscillated strongly around 4,400 ringgit, supported by a 8%+ increase in export data in the first 20 days and a decline in production in the same period. There is an expectation of an upward trend after effectively reaching and stabilizing above 4,500 ringgit [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures rebounded. Short - term, it may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil and break through the 9,500 yuan mark. After Malaysian palm oil rises above 4,500 ringgit, Dalian palm oil futures may also rise, but beware of unexpected declines before the National Day holiday [3]. Soybean Oil - International situation and domestic factors: Tensions in Europe and the Middle East led to a rise in international crude oil, boosting the vegetable oil market. Domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient with good consumption. There are also news of soybean oil exports. However, due to the approaching holidays, capital withdrawal, and the concentrated listing of US soybeans, the increase of Dalian soybean oil is limited, and a decline at the end of the month is possible [4]. Bean Meal - Futures: Affected by uncertain Sino - US tariff prospects, a slight increase in South American premiums, and expected end - of - month restocking, institutional short positions were reduced, and Dalian bean meal rebounded weakly. Short - term resistance is in the 3,050 - 3,080 yuan range [17]. - Spot: Oil mills raised prices by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Supply is temporarily abundant during the National Day, but due to transportation vehicle shortages and some traders' restocking, the market slightly improved, with prices oscillating between 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. Data Summaries Oil Price Spreads - Palm oil: P 1 - 5 was 202 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 was 322 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan decrease; P 9 - 1 was - 524 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan decrease [5]. - Soybean oil: Y 1 - 5 was 276 yuan/ton with no change; Y 5 - 9 was 62 yuan/ton with no change; Y 9 - 1 was - 338 yuan/ton with no change [5]. - Others: Y - P 01 was - 988 yuan/ton with a 32 - yuan increase; Y/M 01 was 2.7631 with no change; OI 1 - 5 was 500 yuan/ton with an 11 - yuan increase; OI/RM 01 was 3.9921 with a 1.24% decrease [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures: Palm oil 01 was 9,360 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase; Palm oil 05 was 9,154 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase; Palm oil 09 was 8,802 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase [8]. - Spot: BMD palm oil main contract was 4,464 ringgit/ton with a 0.88% increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil was 9,260 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree basis was - 66 yuan/ton with a 28 - yuan increase [8]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures: Soybean oil 01 was 8,366 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase; Soybean oil 05 was 8,078 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease; Soybean oil 09 was 8,034 yuan/ton with a 0.28% decrease [13]. - Spot: Shandong first - grade soybean oil was 8,470 yuan/ton with no change; Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis was 142 yuan/ton with a 36 - yuan increase [13]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Bean meal: Bean meal 01 closed at 3,034 with a 20 - point increase and a 0.66% rise; Bean meal 05 was 2,782 with a 4 - point decrease and a 0.14% decline; Bean meal 09 was 2,891 with an 8 - point decrease and a 0.28% decline [18]. - Rapeseed meal: Rapeseed meal 01 was 2,528 with a 6 - point increase and a 0.24% rise; Rapeseed meal 05 was 2,373 with a 14 - point decrease and a 0.59% decline; Rapeseed meal 09 was 2,447 with a 7 - point decrease and a 0.29% decline [18]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Bean meal: M01 - 05 was 228 with no change; M05 - 09 was - 113 with a 4 - point increase; M09 - 01 was - 115 with a 4 - point decrease [19][21]. - Rapeseed meal: RM01 - 05 was 135 with a 22 - point increase; RM05 - 09 was - 67 with an 11 - point increase; RM09 - 01 was - 68 with a 33 - point decrease [19][21]. - Spot: The spot price difference between bean and rapeseed meal was 450 with a 5 - point decrease; the futures price difference was 492 with no change [21].