贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious Metals: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and sent a dovish signal. Economic recession risks have boosted safe - haven demand, and long - term factors such as central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization support gold prices [3]. - Copper: In the next week, copper may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [18]. - Aluminum: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - drive has paused. The Shanghai aluminum market may focus on fundamentals, and the price may fluctuate strongly. Alumina may be weak in the short term due to supply surplus, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly [37][38]. - Zinc: The supply is in an excess state, and the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. Zinc prices may fluctuate in the short term [68]. - Nickel Industry Chain: Nickel ore prices are affected by nickel price movements and supply concerns. The new energy sector provides some support, nickel iron prices are firm, and stainless steel has limited downside space [83]. - Tin: The decline in tin prices last week was due to Powell's hawkish speech. The short - term supply is tight, and prices may fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [98]. - Lithium Carbonate: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate. Downstream demand may support prices in the future [109]. - Silicon Industry Chain: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon futures is complex, and the risk is relatively high [118]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Influencing Factors: Fed's interest rate cut, economic data, central bank gold purchases, and de - dollarization affect gold prices [3]. - Price Charts: Include SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, gold - silver ratio, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and gold and US dollar index [4][8][15]. Copper - Price Outlook: May fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton in the next week [18]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply is tight as the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine needs 1 - 2 weeks to resume production, and demand remains stable [18]. - Market Data: Provide copper futures and spot prices, import and export data, and inventory data [19][24][34]. Aluminum - Aluminum Price Analysis: Interest rate cut expectations and fundamentals affect prices. After the interest rate cut, the focus is on inventory, and prices may fluctuate strongly [37]. - Alumina Situation: Supply surplus leads to a weak price outlook in the short term [38]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Rises due to tight scrap aluminum supply and may fluctuate strongly [38]. - Market Data: Include aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data [39][54][64]. Zinc - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is in excess, and the market's expectation for the peak season is average. LME inventory is decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [68]. - Market Data: Provide zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data [69][74][79]. Nickel Industry Chain - Nickel Ore: The benchmark price has increased, and supply concerns exist due to government intervention in Indonesia [83]. - New Energy: Supports nickel - related product prices [83]. - Nickel Iron: Prices are firm, but high - price transactions have declined [83]. - Stainless Steel: Has limited downside space due to cost support and de - stocking [83]. - Market Data: Include nickel and stainless steel futures prices, trading volume, and inventory data [84]. Tin - Price Analysis: The decline last week was due to Powell's hawkish speech. Supply is tight in the short term, and prices may fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [98]. - Market Data: Provide tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indexes [99][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Outlook: May fluctuate before the National Day holiday, and downstream demand may support prices [109]. - Market Data: Include lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory data [110][112][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial Silicon: Prices may rise slightly with the dry season but are limited by inventory [118]. - Polysilicon: The trading focus is on the establishment of the September procurement platform and the November warehouse receipt cancellation. The risk is relatively high [118]. - Market Data: Provide industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, production, and inventory data [119][120][141].