瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its strong upward trend during Monday's trading session, with gold and silver futures prices hitting new all - time highs. After the interest rate cut bullish factors were realized, the market selling pressure increased significantly, and the market entered a wide - range volatile correction starting last Wednesday. On Friday night, driven by the warming trading sentiment, the precious metals market continued to break through strongly, and the silver futures prices at home and abroad hit new all - time highs. Beyond the interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical conflicts and the intensifying US government debt problem are structurally bearish for the US dollar, providing strong support for the gold price. In the future, after the gold and silver prices quickly break through important levels, they may face upward resistance and the callback pressure gradually increases. There is a high possibility that the gold and silver prices will enter a phase of consolidation after hitting new highs. The market's strong bullish sentiment towards the precious metals market may become more cautious, and the subsequent market trend will still depend on the performance of the August PCE personal consumption expenditure data. Interval band trading is recommended, and short positions can be lightly established on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 846.5 yuan/gram, up 15.94 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 10317 yuan/kilogram, up 346 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 260256 lots, up 20079 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 504051 lots, up 70069 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 174322 lots, up 2828 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 128977 lots, down 6586 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 57429 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1148624 kilograms, down 10819 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 835.4 yuan/gram, up 9.5 yuan; the silver spot price was 10167 yuan/kilogram, up 306 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 11.1 yuan/gram, down 6.44 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 150 yuan/kilogram, down 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 994.56 tons, up 18.9 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15205.14 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266410 contracts, up 4670 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 51538 contracts, down 2399 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.43%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.66%, down 0.01% [2] 3.4 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 17.62%, down 4.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 17.63%, down 5.01% [2] 3.5 Industry News - Wall Street is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates faster and more significantly in the future. The futures market bets that the Fed's benchmark short - term interest rate will fall below 3% by the end of next year. US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, forcing both sides to negotiate to avoid a government shutdown. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund to promote US factory and infrastructure construction. The EU Commission passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [2]