广发期货《黑色》日报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel demand is in the off - season, with weak reality and expectations due to declines in domestic real estate, infrastructure investment, and a slowdown in manufacturing investment growth. However, coal supply interference expectations remain, and raw materials like coking coal and iron ore are relatively strong. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with rebar between 3100 - 3350 yuan and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. Suggest light - position long - entry attempts and short the January hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [1] Iron Ore - Last week, iron ore futures trended strongly. Supply - side global shipments rebounded significantly while 45 - port arrivals decreased. Demand - side saw increased steel mill restocking demand despite a slight decline in profit margins. The market is in a balanced and tight state, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 iron ore contract at low prices and engage in an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Last week, coke and coking coal futures both trended upwards. For coke, after two rounds of price cuts, there is still profit in coking, and downstream demand has support. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. For coking coal, the market has stabilized, and downstream restocking demand has increased. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract at low prices and engage in an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China and North China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in South China it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Futures prices for all contracts rose. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in North China and South China it decreased by 10 and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices also generally rose [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Profits of some steel products decreased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit which decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1] Production, Inventory, and Demand - Daily average pig iron production increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. Five major steel products' production decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. Five major steel products' inventory increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase. Building materials trading volume increased by 2.6 to 11.4, a 29.6% increase [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of various iron ore powders in Rizhao Port increased slightly, with a 0.9 - 1.0% increase. Futures contract spreads such as 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 changed, with the 5 - 9 spread increasing by 2.5 to 22.0, a 12.8% increase [4] Supply and Demand - Global iron ore shipments increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a 29.6% increase, and 45 - port arrivals decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a 3.5% decrease. 247 steel mills' daily average pig iron production increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [4] Inventory - 45 - port inventory decreased by 3.3 to 13801.08, a 0.0% decrease. 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase [4] Coking Coal and Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices generally rose. For example, the coke 01 contract increased by 30 to 1739, a 1.7% increase, and the coking coal 01 contract increased by 29 to 1232, a 2.4% increase [6] Supply and Demand - Coke production was relatively stable, with the full - sample coking plant's daily average production decreasing by 0.0 to 66.7, a 0.1% decrease. Coking coal production increased, with raw coal production increasing by 11.4 to 872.5, a 1.3% increase [6] Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. Coking coal inventory also showed an overall increase, with the full - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory increasing by 56.9 to 940.4, a 6.4% increase [6]