农产品早报-20250923

Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the industry investment rating. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, with new - season corn approaching the market, enterprise demand for old corn is weakening, and prices are running weakly, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the pressure of increased production and lower costs, and may reverse when consumption improves or farmers show reluctance to sell [4]. - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing raw corn decreases, enterprises are likely to lower the price of starch to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil's high - pressure supply during the peak crushing season is weighing on sugar prices. Domestic prices are following the international trend, with imported sugar arriving at ports and processed sugar prices dropping [5]. - Cotton: The price has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low could be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Eggs: Since September, the spot price has rebounded by nearly 40% due to increased demand and traders' "buy - on - rising" mentality. High inventory and cold - storage eggs cap the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Monitor the situation of culled hens and cold - storage egg release [10]. - Apples: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national output may not differ much from last year. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the price is currently stable. Attention should be paid to the final output [12]. - Pigs: There are policy - related expectations for a capacity inflection point next year, but in the medium - term, supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. The spot price has hit a new low this year, and the futures market is trading on weak reality. Focus on factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16]. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, the price in Changchun remained at 2230 (except for the missing data on the 22nd), the price in Jinzhou fluctuated from 2260 to 2250, and the price in Weifang remained at 2264. The price in Shekou remained at 2420. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2850 respectively [3]. - Analysis: Short - term price of corn is weakening due to new - season supply, and starch price is expected to decline to reduce inventory. Long - term, both are under price - downward pressure [4]. Sugar - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased by 40, 30, and 25 respectively. The import profits from Thailand and Brazil increased by 23 each, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [5]. - Analysis: International supply pressure from Brazil affects prices, and domestic prices follow the international trend with increasing imported sugar supply [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 75, and the spot price of cotton yarn decreased by 50. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 63, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 29 [7]. - Analysis: Cotton price is in a consolidation phase, with limited downside and focus on demand changes [7]. Eggs - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained stable, while the price in Hubei decreased by 0.11. The basis decreased by 40, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.08 [10]. - Analysis: Spot price has rebounded, but high inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below feed cost [10]. Apples - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis changed by - 18, 7, and - 11 respectively [11][12]. - Analysis: New - season output may be similar to last year, consumption is in the off - season, and price is stable. Monitor the final output [12]. Pigs - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.20, 0.20, 0.10, and 0.20 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 170 [16]. - Analysis: There are policy expectations for next year, but medium - term supply pressure remains, and the spot price has hit a new low. Focus on slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16].