集运早报-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened high and moved low on Monday. In the morning, it might have been trading on the price support in mid - October (CMA price increase) and the suspension of the China - Europe Railway Express (with limited actual impact), and then the decline was likely affected by the falling spot prices. The basis for October was around 60 points, and the spread between October and December was - 560 (-20) [1]. - The price is still falling in early October. There is an expected price increase in late October, but under the suppression of the off - season, the expectation may not be well - realized, and it is more likely to stabilize. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers [1]. - The valuation of the December contract is not low. The 02 contract may have a higher cost - performance ratio for long - allocation than the December contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The current valuation of the 04 contract is also high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to fluctuations. Therefore, the long - 02 and short - 04 spread trading can be considered. In addition, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position reduction, and the risk of capital position transfer for the October contract with a large number of open positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Information - Futures Contract Prices and Changes: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1093.7, 1653.9, 1573.6, 1275.0, and 1454.5 respectively, with changes of 4.11%, 1.47%, 0.71%, 2.00%, and 1.07%. The open interest of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 was 46030 (-1685), 21956 (-124), 7398 (122), 8922 (81), and 0 (-33) respectively [1]. - Monthly Spreads: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 560.2 and 80.3 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 19.3 and 12.8, and week - on - week changes of - 56.1 and - 21.4 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Information - Spot Freight Indexes: The SCHIC SCFI (European line) was 1440.24 dollars/TEU on September 15 and 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, with decreases of 8.06% and 8.84% compared to the previous period. The CCFI was 1470.97 points on September 19, a decrease of 4.31% from the previous period. The NCFI was 673.61 points on September 19, a decrease of 7.65% from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - Week 39 (End of September): The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was initially 1500 US dollars and then rose to 1570 US dollars. The PA Alliance's quotation was 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance's was 1600 - 1720 US dollars [2]. - Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October): The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was 1400 US dollars, the PA Alliance's was 1300 - 1500 US dollars (YML's 1300 US dollars was the lowest of the year), and the OA Alliance's was 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2]. - Monday Changes: OOCL's price dropped 50 to 1400 US dollars, and MSC's dropped 100 to 1490 US dollars. HPL - SPOT quoted 1435 for early October, 2035 for late October, and 2525 for November (HPL - SPOT's quotations usually fluctuate greatly and have limited reference value) [2]. 3.4 Related News - As of September 22, 2025, 157 out of 193 UN member states had recognized the State of Palestine. Israel stated that its war goal "is not limited to Gaza", and the rift in the Western world's consensus on Israel's policy was gradually widening [3].