芳烃橡胶早报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up has declined slightly, polyester load has remained stable, inventory has accumulated slightly, the basis has weakened, and the spot processing margin has slightly recovered. With the restart of the device, TA de - stocking will slow down. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and new production in the future, the far - end inventory is expected to accumulate. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and as PX supply gradually returns, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand the processing fee under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based production has slightly reduced the load, coal - based start - up has remained stable, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory has slightly accumulated at the beginning of next week due to stable arrivals and dull shipments, downstream stocking levels have increased, the basis has weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio has shrunk. The near - end new device has been put into production earlier than expected, and the valuation has been significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals month - on - month and the high - supply expectation in the far - end, the port may start to gradually accumulate inventory. However, the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up has increased to 95.4% as some devices have increased their loads, sales have improved month - on - month, and inventory has continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has remained stable, raw material stocking has increased, and finished - product inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the benefit is weak. In the future, the speed of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to the high level of finished - product inventory. Although the start - up remains high due to the good spot benefit of staple fiber, the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump has remained stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Device Changes: Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton device has reduced the load, and Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device has restarted [1]. - Market Conditions: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions is 2601(- 84). The domestic start - up of PX has declined, overseas devices have operated stably, PXN has weakened month - on - month, the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization have remained basically stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia has widened [1]. MEG - Device Changes: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device has stopped again [1]. - Market Conditions: The basis of MEG spot transactions is around + 92 for 01. The near - end domestic oil - based production has slightly reduced the load, coal - based start - up has remained stable, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory has slightly accumulated at the beginning of next week, downstream stocking levels have increased, the basis has weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio has shrunk [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Device Changes: Some devices such as Zhongtai and Xianglu have increased their loads, and the start - up has increased to 95.4% [1]. - Market Conditions: The spot price is around 6418, and the market basis is around - 10 for 10. Sales have improved month - on - month, inventory has continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has remained stable, raw material stocking has increased, and finished - product inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the benefit is weak [1]. Natural Rubber - Market Conditions: The national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump has remained stable. The daily and weekly price changes of various rubber products are provided in the report, such as the daily change of Shanghai full - latex is - 100, and the weekly change is - 460 [1]. Styrene - related Products - Price Changes: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products have changed. For example, the daily change of pure benzene (CFR China) is - 10, and the daily change of styrene (Jiangsu) is - 75 [1]. - Profit and Start - up Rate: The domestic profits of PS, ABS, and EPS have changed, and the start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS are also presented in the report [1].