永安期货有色早报-20250923

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper fundamentals show resilience, with downstream开工 rising and weakening scrap substitution. Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, with inventory expected to decline in September. Hold on dips in a low - inventory situation and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices are moving down in a volatile way. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate. Hold short positions and partially take profit on internal - external positive arbitrage [6]. - Nickel has weak short - term fundamentals, with high - level production and weak demand. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased, but there are price - supporting policies [7]. - Stainless steel has weak fundamentals. Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, with mainly rigid demand. The short - term macro - situation follows the anti - involution expectation [7]. - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply is tight, while demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9]. - Tin prices are in wide - range fluctuations. The domestic and overseas supply is expected to improve marginally. The short - term fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand. Suggest short - term waiting and light - position short selling above 275,000 yuan/ton [12]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October, affected by the resumption rhythm of Southwest and Hesheng. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - Carbonate lithium prices are moving strongly in a volatile way. With supply - side disturbances and seasonal demand, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side hype and strong downward support before that [18]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Market Data: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. The downstream开工 rate increased, and the scrap substitution effect weakened. The internal - external positive arbitrage has space [1]. - Strategy: Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Price and Market Data: Aluminum prices declined slightly. The downstream开工 improved, and the inventory is expected to decline in September [1][2]. - Strategy: Hold on dips in a low - inventory situation and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: Zinc prices moved down in a volatile way. Supply from overseas mines increased, and domestic demand is seasonally weak. The LME inventory is at a low level [6]. - Strategy: Hold short positions and partially take profit on internal - external positive arbitrage [6]. Nickel - Price and Market Data: Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased [7]. - Strategy: No specific strategy is mentioned other than the analysis of fundamentals [7]. Stainless Steel - Price and Market Data: Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, with mainly rigid demand [7]. - Strategy: No specific strategy is mentioned other than the analysis of fundamentals [7]. Lead - Price and Market Data: Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply is tight, and demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level [9]. - Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate greatly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9]. Tin - Price and Market Data: Tin prices fluctuated widely. Domestic and overseas supply is expected to improve marginally, and demand is mainly rigid [12]. - Strategy: Suggest short - term waiting and light - position short selling above 275,000 yuan/ton [12]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Market Data: Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October, affected by the resumption rhythm of Southwest and Hesheng [16]. - Strategy: In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Carbonate Lithium - Price and Market Data: Carbonate lithium prices are moving strongly in a volatile way. Supply - side disturbances and seasonal demand affect the market [18]. - Strategy: The price has high elasticity after the supply - side hype and strong downward support before that [18].