建信期货豆粕日报-20250923

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Domestic Futures Contracts: The closing prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all increased. The trading volume of the 2601 contract was 1,046,478, and the closing price was 3034, with a 1.00% increase. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 5,276, and the closing price was 2891, with a 0.07% increase. The trading volume of the 2511 contract was 78,776, and the closing price was 3008, with a 1.11% increase [6] - External Market: The US soybean futures contract declined, with the main contract at 1020 cents. The weather for the new - season US soybeans continued to deteriorate, with the excellent - good rate dropping to 63% and the drought - affected area rising from 22% to 33%. The market focused on Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the two sides held talks in Spain from the 14th to the 17th, reaching a general framework agreement on the TikTok incident [6] Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the CBOT price lacks drivers and maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Externally, attention should be paid to weather and economic and trade negotiation issues. Given the potential lack of positive factors from now until the National Day, investors are advised to reduce positions to avoid risks. However, under the assumption of unchanged tariffs, the long - position window may be in the fourth quarter [6] Group 3: Industry News - As of last Friday, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean was 0.7%, higher than 0.25% in the same period last year, 0.4% in 2023, and the five - year average of 0.18%. The soybean planting in Mato Grosso, Brazil's main producing area, has made progress, reaching 0.55% of the estimated area, higher than 0.27% in the same period last year and the historical average of 0.48% [9][10] - The Rosario Grain Exchange predicted that Argentina's 2025/26 grain and its by - product exports may reach a record 105.1 million tons, exceeding the previous year's 101.6 million tons and the 2018/19 record of 104.1 million tons. It is estimated that grain and oilseed shipments will reach 64.7 million tons, of which 62% is corn, and the export of fats, oils, and oil meals is estimated to be 40.4 million tons, mostly from soybeans [10] Group 4: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][18][15]