Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of live pigs in the spot market are loose, and the price remains weak. Although the demand has increased, the continuous increase is not obvious, and the supply pressure is relatively greater. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, and the supply - demand margin may improve, but they are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 22nd, the main live pig contract 2511 opened slightly higher, then fluctuated and declined after reaching a high, closing with a negative candle. The highest price was 12,920 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,780 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,795 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 648 lots to 247,641 lots [8]. - Spot Market: On the 22nd, the average price of三元 pigs nationwide was 12.67 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - Supply - side: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high, and there is still pressure on slaughter. The slaughter weight has slightly declined. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [9]. - Demand - side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Although the weather has turned cooler, the continuous increase in demand is not obvious, and the sales of white - striped pigs are slow. There is no obvious positive news. In the second half of the month, the slaughter volume has increased, the enterprise's operating rate has slightly increased, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On September 22nd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 153,200 heads, a decrease of 400 heads from the previous day, an increase of 13,700 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 9,100 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - As of September 18th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live pig was 7.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 46 yuan/head; the average profit per purchased piglet for fattening was - 246.6 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 70.8 yuan/head [10][12]. 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of September 18th was 358 yuan/head, a decrease of 36 yuan/head from the previous week [15]. - The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of September 18th was 0.16 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/jin [15]. - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg in the week of September 18th was 12.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 12.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week [15]. - The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises in the week of September 18th was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 2.22 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly operating rate fluctuated in the range of 31.54 - 31.80 [15]. - As of the week of September 18th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.45 kg, an increase of 0.13 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [15].
建信期货生猪日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-23 01:31