Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact inland valuations. With average valuation, inventory, and weak drivers, it's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2]. - Plastic: For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. External markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat compared to the previous period, and recent domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure in 2025 is large, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - PP: Polypropylene inventory in upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderately excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [8]. - PVC: The basis of 01 contract maintains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operation starts are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, semi - coke costs are stable, and calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation starts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu spot, South China spot, and other regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2290 on September 16 to 2257 on September 22, with a daily change of - 3 [2]. - Profit Data: Import profit was mainly 0 or - 9, - 10, 6; the main contract basis was around - 100 to - 1255; the MTO profit on the disk was - 1255 [2]. Plastic - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850 (except for September 19 - 22 when it was 845). The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had some changes. For example, North China LL decreased from 7130 on September 16 to 7070 on September 22, with a daily change of - 30 [6]. - Inventory and Profit Data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 67 on September 16 to 63 on September 22. Import profit was mainly - 22, - 12, - 66 [6]. PP - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, Shandong propylene price decreased from 6530 on September 16 to 6500 on September 22, with a daily change of - 80. The prices of East China PP, North China PP, etc. also changed. For example, East China PP decreased from 6840 on September 16 to 6770 on September 22, with a daily change of - 25 [8]. - Inventory and Profit Data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 67 on September 16 to 63 on September 22. Export profit was mainly - 19, - 30, - 26, - 24 [8]. PVC - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2500 on September 16 to 2600 on September 19 and remained at 2600 on September 22. The prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased from 4830 on September 16 to 4810 on September 22, with a daily change of - 20 [8]. - Profit Data: Export profit was 342, 335, 336; Northwest comprehensive profit was 356; North China comprehensive profit was - 244; the basis of high - end delivery products was - 150 [8].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-23 01:28