Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7169 | 7130 | 7183 | 7121 | -51 | -0.71% | 580839 | 24526 | | Plastic 2605 | 7231 | 7187 | 7239 | 7175 | -41 | -0.57% | 41372 | 1271 | | Plastic 2609 | 7266 | 7229 | 7267 | 7222 | -35 | -0.48% | 145 | 53 | | PP2601 | 6917 | 6873 | 6927 | 6862 | -44 | -0.64% | 645243 | 35335 | | PP2605 | 6967 | 6929 | 6973 | 6919 | -30 | -0.43% | 73930 | 239 | | PP2609 | 6944 | 6912 | 6954 | 6907 | -14 | -0.20% | 1665 | 76 | [5] Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7130 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (-0.71%), with a trading volume of 210,000 lots and an increase of 24,526 lots in open interest to 580,839 lots. PP2601 closed at 6873 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.64%, with an increase of 35,300 lots in open interest to 645,200 lots [6]. - The futures market opened lower and fluctuated downward, which was negative for market sentiment. Some ex-factory prices were lowered, and traders followed suit. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was low, with only small orders being placed [6]. - The upstream maintenance level of polypropylene slightly exceeded expectations, with more units shutting down. Both the upstream capacity utilization rate and output decreased. In addition, due to the recent strengthening of propane prices, the profit of PDH units continued to be compressed, and the operating load rate declined, alleviating the supply-side pressure. Some maintenance units will restart this week, and output may increase month-on-month [6]. - The maintenance volume of PE has declined from its high level, and the supply pressure has increased month-on-month. Except for the increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, most other sectors remained flat. The peak season performance was lower than expected, and the downstream operating rate and order situation were at a relatively low level year-on-year. Factories were cautious in raw material procurement, showing a weak peak season and having limited support for the raw material market. The destocking rhythm of intermediate social inventories was slow, and there was limited upward momentum [6]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the macroeconomic environment has been realized, but the chemical sector showed a flat performance. There is still some support from the increasing demand for packaging products approaching the Double Festival, but market confidence is insufficient, and there is no large-scale replenishment behavior. The demand-driven force is limited, and the market is weak and fluctuating at a low level [6]. Industry News - On September 22, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 680,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 7.94%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7]. - The price of the PE market weakened and declined. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6500 - 6570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply-demand support in the market weakened, and the enthusiasm of downstream factories to enter the market for procurement was not high. Propylene production enterprises had average sales and mostly offered discounts to promote sales. The market trading situation has not improved significantly [7]. - The PP market declined slightly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6700 - 6820 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6860 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6680 - 6900 yuan/ton [8] Data Overview - Graphs include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, settlement price of crude oil futures main contract, two - barrel oil inventory, and year - on - year increase/decrease of two - barrel oil inventory [14][15][16]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-23 01:42