Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price declined. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.65 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.84 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 11 - contract dropped 1.51%. [7] - For egg contracts: the 2510 contract closed at 2982, down 56 (-1.84%); the 2511 contract closed at 3075, down 47 (-1.51%); the 2512 contract closed at 3201, down 58 (-1.78%). [7] Core View - After the weakest summer peak season in recent years, the spot market has gradually stabilized and rebounded. The supply pressure has eased due to accelerated culling from August to September, and there is still demand support from Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking in September. However, the spot peak - season rise is expected to end soon. [8] - In the futures market, contracts in the fourth quarter fell sharply earlier and rose significantly last Monday. The previous weak market sentiment and short - dominated market led to a rise in the basis. The strong spot market caused the futures market to make up for the increase. [8] - The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. After the price increase, there may be fluctuations. If there are profits from long positions, it is advisable to take profits at high prices. The near - month 10 contract may enter the delivery month with a high discount. The rebound space should not be overestimated. [8] Operation Suggestions - Future contract operations need to continuously monitor culling and replenishment data. The fundamental inflection point may appear in the later part of the fourth quarter at the earliest. There may be adjustment space in the short - to - medium term after the spot market encounters resistance. [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of August, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. [9] - The monthly output of layer chicks in sample enterprises in August was about 39.81 million, slightly less than 39.98 million in July and significantly less than 43.95 million in the same period in 2024. The low breeding profits in the past two months have started to change farmers' expansion mindset. [9][10] - From the weekly data, as of September 18, the national culling volume in the previous three weeks was 17.61 million, 17.48 million, and 17.89 million respectively. The culling volume has been rising since August, and the current absolute value is slightly higher than the average of the previous three years. As of September 18, the average culling age was 497 days, 2 days later than last week and 9 days earlier than last month. [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes data charts such as the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, layer breeding profits, the average price in the main egg - producing areas, the 10 - contract basis of eggs, the 12 - 02 spread of eggs, and the 10 - contract seasonal trend of eggs, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen. [13][17][20]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-23 01:45