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建信期货集运指数日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-23 01:52
  1. Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the freight rates in October have been further reduced. The spot freight rates show a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the rate of freight rate reduction can slow down and whether the bottom of the freight rate can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East may support the far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the SCFIS fell below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks. The freight rates in October were further reduced, with the opening price in the first half of October dropping to a minimum of $1400/FEU. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes for the first and second weeks of October were $1400 and $1470 respectively, about $200 lower than the late - September quotes. Other airlines followed suit, with the quotes of major airlines concentrated between $1435 - $1500, also about $200 lower than before. The 12 - month contract may have low - buying opportunities, and the 10 - month contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 4.2 Industry News - From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, the market freight rates on ocean routes continued to adjust, and the decline of the composite index widened. The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries nationwide was 5.2%, showing strong resilience. On September 19th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, a 14.3% drop from the previous period. In the European route, Germany's economic situation was still sluggish. The freight rates in the spot market continued to decline. In the Mediterranean route, the supply - demand fundamentals were weak, and the market freight rates continued to adjust. In the North American route, the consumer confidence index in the United States dropped to a new low since May this year, and the freight rates in the spot market dropped significantly. There were also reports on the tense situation in the Middle East, including the US veto of the Gaza cease - fire resolution and the Israeli military's actions in Gaza [9][10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on September 22, 2025, was 1254.92 points, a 12.9% drop from September 15th. The SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) was 1193.64 points, an 11.6% drop from September 15th [12]. 4.3.2 Futures Quotes of Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Trading data for September 22nd showed that different contracts of container shipping futures (European route) had different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1,093.7, a settlement price of 1,102.0, a rise of 21.4, and a rise rate of 2.00%, with a trading volume of 44,939 and an open interest of 46,030 [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Various charts related to shipping data were provided, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Settlement Freight Index, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][17][22]