铝日报-20250923

1. Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut decision has been made, but China's 5 - year LPR remained unchanged on Monday. The A - share market weakened, and the Shanghai aluminum futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, continuing the adjustment trend. The main contract 2511 closed down 0.36% at 20,745 yuan. The spread between October and November contracts turned to a premium of 5 yuan, and the far - month contracts showed a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss widened to - 1,780 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the downstream alumina spot price is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the Guinea election [7]. - The fundamentals of alumina remain weak, but at the current price, some manufacturers are on the verge of profit and loss again, and cost support is gradually emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. Although it has entered the traditional peak season of "Golden September", the inventory inflection point has not appeared. As the absolute price falls and aluminum processing enterprises have pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and the back structure may deepen [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward - then - downward trend, with the main contract 2511 closing down 0.36% at 20,745 yuan. The spread between October and November contracts turned to a premium of 5 yuan, and the far - month contracts showed a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss widened to - 1,780 yuan/ton [7]. - Bauxite Situation: The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the downstream alumina spot price is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the Guinea election [7]. - Alumina Suggestion: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, but at the current price, some manufacturers are on the verge of profit and loss again, and cost support is emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Strategy: The trend of cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Outlook: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. Although it has entered the peak season, the inventory inflection point has not appeared. As the price falls and there is pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and the back structure may deepen [7]. 4.2 Industry News - Policy Issuance: On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote high - quality development in areas such as photovoltaics and guide the orderly layout of related industries [8][10]. - Project Delay: India's Federal Ministry of Environment has postponed the approval of Vedanta's Sijimali bauxite project in Odisha. The project has an estimated reserve of 311 million tons. The Forest Advisory Committee (FAC) pointed out that the report submitted by the Odisha government did not address issues such as community consent, compensatory afforestation, and ecological risks. The project will remain on hold until these issues are resolved [10]. - Mining Right Change: The mining right of the Dataoyuan bauxite mine in Shanzhou District, Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., has been changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10].