建信期货铁矿石日评-20250923

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The Fed's interest rate cut and domestic policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. Considering the resumption of steel mills' production and restocking demand before the National Day holiday, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review - On September 22, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opening higher, then oscillating lower, and finally closing at 808.5 yuan/ton, up 0.37% [7] - The prices of major iron ore varieties in the spot market remained flat compared with the previous trading day [8] 3.2 Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract is moving downward, with the K and J values turning down, and the D value continuing to decline. The red column of the MACD indicator of the daily line has been expanding for two consecutive trading days [9] 3.3 Market Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and two more cuts are expected this year, but Powell's post - meeting statement was hawkish. The domestic policy expectations have resurfaced, which will boost market sentiment [10] - Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrivals increased. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks increased by 3.56% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the future arrivals are expected to further recover, showing a pattern of low in the front and high in the back [10][11] - On the demand side, last week, the molten iron output, blast furnace start - up rate, and blast furnace capacity utilization rate rebounded again. The demand recovered significantly after the September 3 restrictions, but the continuous decline in the profitability of downstream steel enterprises will limit the growth of demand to some extent [11] - As the National Day holiday in October approaches, steel mills have started to restock, which will support the demand for iron ore before the holiday [11] 3.4 Industry News - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [12] - On September 18, 2025, Vietnam's Trade Defense Bureau officially accepted an anti - circumvention investigation application filed by Vietnamese producers on September 10 against hot - rolled coil products originating from China [12] 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to iron ore, including prices, spreads, shipments, arrivals, inventory, and production capacity utilization rates, with data sources from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][21]