Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index futures market, the TMT sector is booming, but the overall market volume is shrinking. The bond market is affected by factors such as central bank policies and market sentiment, showing a mixed situation. The precious metals market is driven by overseas political turmoil and the divergence of Fed officials' attitudes, with prices reaching new highs. The shipping index shows a volatile trend, and the commodity futures market, including non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products, also presents different supply - demand and price trends [2][5][8][11]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Monday, A - shares strengthened in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.55%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted. The consumer electronics sector led the rise, while the consumer - related sectors declined [2][3]. - News: Domestic news includes a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" of the financial industry. Overseas, there are differences between South Korea and the US on a $350 billion investment [3][4]. - Funding: On September 18, the trading volume of A - shares decreased. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan [4]. - Operation Suggestion: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market turned to shock. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 to collect premiums when the index pulls back [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all rose, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - Funding: The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds continued to improve [6]. - Policy: The central bank's monetary policy is supportive, and it will ensure liquidity and promote the decline of social financing costs [6]. - Operation Suggestion: The bond market is still mixed. It is recommended to operate within the range, and consider the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: Due to the political turmoil in Argentina and the divergence of Fed officials' attitudes towards interest rate cuts, the precious metals market was driven by risk - aversion sentiment, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs [8][9]. - Outlook: In the short term, gold will maintain high - level volatility, and it is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is above $41 [10]. - Funding: The Fed's loose monetary policy stimulates institutional investors to increase their holdings of ETFs [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot Quotation: As of September 22, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies are in different ranges [11]. - Shipping Index: The SCFIS European line index decreased by 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9%, the Shanghai - US West freight rate increased by 31%, and the Shanghai - US East freight rate decreased by 23% [11]. - Fundamentals: As of September 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.35% year - on - year. The eurozone's August composite PMI was 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - Logic: The futures market was volatile. It is expected that the spot inflection point will appear in mid - to - late October, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of the 12 and 02 contracts [12]. - Operation Suggestion: The market is bearish, and it is advisable to consider the spread arbitrage between the 12 - month and 10 - month contracts [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 22, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the market procurement sentiment weakened when the price returned to around 80,000 yuan/ton [12]. - Macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the future interest rate cut path is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data [13][14]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease in September [14]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the price correction, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - Inventory: LME and domestic social inventories decreased, while COMEX inventory increased [16]. - Logic: The short - term driving force is weak. The market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides support for the price [17]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 and 81,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: On September 22, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply pattern was gradually loosening [17]. - Supply: In August, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected to continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [18]. - Logic: The market is in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 and 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. - Operation Suggestion: Pay attention to the support at 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 22, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the market trading activity increased [19]. - Supply: In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased [20]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries were in the process of recovery [20]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [20]. - Logic: The macro environment is generally positive, but the inventory is still in the accumulation stage. It is expected to fluctuate between 20,600 and 21,000 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [21]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 22, the spot prices of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [21]. - Supply: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. It is expected that the operating rate will increase slightly in September [22]. - Demand: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, but it is expected to recover moderately in September [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and some areas' inventories were close to full [22]. - Logic: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the cost support is significant. The demand is gradually recovering, and the spot price is expected to remain firm in the short term [23]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [23]. Zinc - Spot: On September 22, the average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased slightly, and some downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices [23][24]. - Supply: The import TC of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the domestic refined zinc production is expected to decrease slightly in September but increase year - on - year [24]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries increased in the peak season, and the inventory of raw materials increased [25]. - Inventory: Both domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [25]. - Logic: The short - term driving force is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate between 21,500 and 22,500 yuan/ton [26]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [26]. Tin - Spot: On September 22, the price of 1 tin increased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The trading activity decreased after the price increase [26][27]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore import volume in August was at a low level, and the tin ingot import volume decreased [28]. - Demand: The operating rate of the solder industry increased in August, but the overall market is still in a tight - balance situation [29]. - Inventory: The LME inventory and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the social inventory decreased [29]. - Logic: The supply side provides support for the price. Attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [30]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [30]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 22, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased slightly [30]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel is at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [31]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel is weak, while the demand for alloys is relatively good. The price of nickel sulfate has increased recently but may face pressure in the medium term [31]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory is at a high level and increased, while the domestic social inventory increased slightly and the bonded area inventory decreased [31]. - Logic: The macro environment is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 120,000 and 125,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 22, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [33]. - Raw Materials: The price of nickel ore is firm, the price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of chromium ore is rising [34]. - Supply: The estimated production of stainless steel in August and September increased [34]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - Logic: The market is in a state of narrow - range fluctuation. The cost support is significant, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized [36]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [36]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: On September 22, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly [37]. - Supply: The production in August increased, and it continued to increase in September. The supply is affected by new projects and imports [37][38]. - Demand: The demand is stable and optimistic, and the seasonal performance is weakened. The demand in September and October is expected to increase [38]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased last week, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [38]. - Logic: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan/ton in the short term [39]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased slightly [39]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of raw materials is affected by production restrictions and supply - demand relationships. The profit of steel products has declined [40]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased in the first eight months, and the production of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased [40]. - Demand: The apparent demand for five major steel products was basically flat in the first eight months. The export of steel products supported the valuation [40]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increased, with rebar inventory decreasing and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing [41]. - Viewpoint: The steel price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. It is recommended to go long lightly and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to continue to converge [43]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 22, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were stable or increased slightly [44]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore increased slightly [44]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties is positive [45]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron production and blast furnace operating rates increased, while the steel mill profitability decreased slightly [45]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, the daily average dredging volume increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [45]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal futures fluctuated and declined. The spot auction price showed signs of stabilization and rebound [47][49]. - Supply: The coal mines in the main production areas continued to resume production, and the import coal price followed the futures price [49]. - Demand: The pig iron production continued to increase, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly, with coal mines, ports, and steel mills reducing inventory and coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increasing inventory [49]. - Viewpoint: The coking coal market is moving towards a tight - balance state. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [49]. Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke futures fluctuated and declined. Some coking enterprises started to raise prices [50][52]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [50]. - Supply: The coking enterprises in the north have high enthusiasm for resuming production [52]. - Demand: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the demand for coke was supported [52]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly, with the coking plant inventory decreasing and the steel mill and port inventories increasing [52]. - Viewpoint: The coke spot price is expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [52]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: The domestic spot prices of soybean meal increased on September 22, and the trading volume increased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [53]. - Fundamentals: Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives. The US is expected to increase soybean planting next year, and the soybean planting in Brazil has started [53][54]. - Market Outlook: The cancellation of the export tax in Argentina put pressure on the US soybean and domestic oil - meal markets. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [56]. Live Pigs - Spot Situation: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated weakly, with prices in various regions decreasing [57]. - Market Data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm for slaughtering by farmers and second - fattening increased [57]. - Market Outlook: The pressure on live pig slaughter is high, and the spot price is difficult to improve before the National Day. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread arbitrage opportunities between different contracts [58].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250923
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-23 02:12