大越期货玻璃早报-20250923

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term due to the imbalance between supply and demand [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The glass production profit has declined, with a high level of cold repair in the industry. The start - up rate and production have dropped to historical lows. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand is sluggish [2]. - The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The national inventory of float glass enterprises is above the 5 - year average, although it decreased by 1.10% compared to the previous week. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is rising. The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Overall, the glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Likely Benefits: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Likely Detriments: Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious. The market sentiment of "anti - involution" has faded [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory has rebounded. Therefore, the glass is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.40% to 1199 yuan/ton, the spot price of large boards in Shahe remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract increased by - 12.50% to - 119 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No specific content on the cost - side situation is provided other than the repeated mention of glass production profit. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Production - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 225, with a start - up rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period [22]. - The daily melting volume of float glass in the country is 160,200 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history, but it has stabilized and rebounded [24]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [28]. - The report also mentions the need to analyze factors such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, as well as the start - up and order status of downstream processing plants, but specific influencing content is not provided. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.10% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [43]. 3.10 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44].