Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is still at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,293 yuan/ton, the basis is -93 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average; bearish [2][35]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward; bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases; bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - Likely to Rise: The peak maintenance period within the year is coming, and the output is expected to decline [3]. - Likely to Fall: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a high level in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro policies has subsided [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90% from the previous value; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous value; the main basis is -93 yuan, unchanged from the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Production - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia-alkali method is -96.75 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China co-production method is -108.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.53%, and the weekly output is 745,700 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 417,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - Production Capacity Change: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 103.56% [23]. - Downstream Demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stabilizes; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the industry reduces production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [26][32]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [35]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply and demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36].
大越期货纯碱早报-20250923
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-23 02:36