沪锌期货早报-20250923

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that LME zinc inventory will continue to decrease, while SHFE zinc warehouse receipts will continue to increase. The zinc futures contract ZN2511 is expected to oscillate and weaken [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1515 million tons, and consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc sheet production was 7.9452 million tons, and consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, indicating a bullish outlook [2] - The basis was -100 with a spot price of 21,990, presenting a neutral outlook [2] - On September 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 46,825 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warehouse receipts increased by 2,523 tons to 55,054 tons, showing a neutral situation [2] - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating rebound trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending downward, suggesting a bearish outlook [2] - The main net position was long, and the long positions increased, indicating a bullish outlook [2] Futures Market Quotes - On September 22, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts across various delivery months totaled 230,483 lots, and the total open interest was 240,089 lots, with an increase of 3,214 lots [3] Spot Market Quotes - On September 22, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 21,990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets in China was 4,048 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes in Tian Tian was 4,452 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,500 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7,875 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] Inventory Statistics - From September 11 to September 22, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 144,600 tons. Compared with September 15, it decreased by 5,000 tons, and compared with September 18, it decreased by 3,700 tons [5] Warehouse Receipt Report - On September 22, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 55,054 tons, an increase of 2,523 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 198 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 2,325 tons [6] LME Zinc Inventory - On September 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 46,825 tons, and the注销 ratio was 33.00% [7] Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 22, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities decreased by 30 yuan/ton [9] Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 22, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters decreased by 40 yuan/ton [13] Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [15] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 22, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most domestic regions remained stable, with some regions showing slight increases or decreases. The import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/dry ton [17] Member Trading and Position Ranking - On September 22, in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, for the zinc futures contract zn2511, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 213,834 lots, an increase of 78,464 lots; the total long position was 87,070 lots, an increase of 5,725 lots; and the total short position was 92,680 lots, an increase of 3,687 lots [19]