沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250923

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The overall view is bearish. The outer market has declined, with the 20 - day moving average acting as resistance. Although nickel ore prices are firm and nickel - iron prices have risen slightly, nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless steel inventories are falling, and new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the decline in ternary battery installations limits nickel demand. In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The view is neutral to bullish. Spot stainless steel prices are flat, with firm cost lines due to stable nickel ore prices, freight rates, and rising nickel - iron prices. Stainless steel inventories are continuing to decline, with good destocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2511 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 多空因素 - 利多因素: "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost expectations, anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [6]. - 利空因素: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and a year - on - year decline in ternary battery installations [6]. 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 | Product | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪镍主力 | 121,400 | 121,500 | - 100 | | 伦镍电 | 15,200 | 15,270 | - 70 | | 不锈钢主力 | 12,910 | 12,860 | 50 | | SMM1电解镍 | 122,700 | 122,750 | - 50 | | 1金川镍 | 123,900 | 123,950 | - 50 | | 1进口镍 | 121,850 | 121,900 | - 50 | | 镍豆 | 124,000 | 124,050 | - 50 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Wuxi) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Foshan) | 14,150 | 14,150 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Hangzhou) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Shanghai) | 14,000 | 14,000 | 0 | [11] 镍仓单、库存 - As of September 19, the上期 - exchange nickel inventory was 29,834 tons, with futures inventory at 25,843 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons and 2,314 tons respectively. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦镍 | 228,900 | 228,444 | 456 | | 沪镍 (Warehouse receipts) | 25,536 | 25,843 | - 307 | | Total inventory | 254,436 | 254,287 | 149 | [13][14] 不锈钢仓单、库存 - On September 19, the Wuxi inventory was 579,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,400 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 617,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,800 tons. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless steel warehouse receipts | 89,377 | 89,732 | - 355 | [18][19] 镍矿、镍铁价格 | Product | Grade | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 57 | 57 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 29 | 29 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight (Philippines - Lianyungang) | | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight (Philippines - Tianjin Port) | | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel (wet ton) | 8 - 12 | 954.5 | 954.5 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Low - nickel (wet ton) | Below 2 | 3,470 | 3,470 | 0 | Yuan/ton | [21] 不锈钢生产成本 | Cost Type | Price | | --- | --- | | Traditional cost | 13,178 | | Scrap steel production cost | 13,566 | | Low - nickel + pure nickel cost | 16,866 | [23] 镍进口成本测算 The imported price is converted to 122,493 yuan/ton [26].